XRP tests key support level! SEC's silence after closed-door meeting suppresses market sentiment, XRP lawsuit appeal vote becomes the focus | Today's crypto market dynamics

The SEC remained silent after a closed-door meeting on July 31, disappointing investors hoping for a withdrawal of the appeal against the procedural sales ruling in the Ripple case, leading to a fall in XRP demand and price. The SEC must submit a report to the court on the case's settlement status by August 15, and its final appeal voting decision (to withdraw or continue) will be a key catalyst for XRP's short-term price movement and the prospects for XRP Spot ETF approval. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also falling due to the cooling expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and capital outflows from Spot ETFs. Investors need to closely follow key drivers such as the SEC's appeal voting, U.S. employment reports, Fed statements, and the progress of encryption legislation.

SEC's silence suppresses sentiment, XRP demand under pressure

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remained silent after holding a closed-door meeting on July 31, a move that dampened investor sentiment and suppressed demand for XRP. As the court's submission deadline approaches, hopes for the SEC to vote to withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case are gradually fading.

After Judge Torres denied the joint motion by both parties for a declaratory judgment on the settlement terms, the SEC must vote on whether to abandon its appeal of the "XRP programmatic sales" ruling. Five weeks have passed since Judge Torres made the ruling, and the SEC must submit a status report on the progress of the settlement to the U.S. Court of Appeals by August 15. Given that there are currently no active settlement negotiations and Ripple is willing to abandon its cross-appeal, whether the Ripple case can be concluded and the price movement of XRP is largely in the hands of the SEC.

SEC appeal vote decides XRP's short-term fate and ETF prospects

If the SEC unexpectedly decides to continue the appeal, it may trigger a sell-off of XRP; however, if the vote decides to withdraw the appeal, it may drive XRP's price to break through strongly. The conclusion of this case could be a key stepping stone to the XRP Spot ETF market. If the SEC continues the appeal, it may reject the approval of the relevant XRP Spot ETF applications.

Despite the increased volatility of XRP, legal experts generally expect the SEC to withdraw its appeal. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel recently commented, "There is no doubt that the SEC will vote to dismiss the appeal in the Ripple case in the coming weeks, but no one outside the SEC knows the exact timing."

XRP Price Outlook: Multiple Catalysts Intertwined

On July 31 (Thursday), XRP fell by 2.41%, continuing the decline of 1.05% on Wednesday, closing at $3.0222. Its performance was worse than the overall encryption market (the total market value fell by 1.95% to $3.73 trillion that day).

The short-term price prospects of XRP depend on several key catalysts:

• SEC Appeal Vote Result: A key event that determines the direction of the case.
• XRP Spot ETF related news: The market expects approval for encryption ETFs.
• XRP applies for US banking license progress: A key step in expanding business.
• SWIFT News: Interaction between traditional finance and the encryption ecosystem.
• Encryption Legislation Dynamics: The progress of the "CLARITY Act" and the "21st Century Mortgage Act" in Congress.

If the XRP price breaks through the resistance level of $3.1, the bullish target could look up to $3.3. If it can maintain above $3.3, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $3.6606. On the contrary, if it falls below the key psychological level of $3, it may test the support level of $2.8.

Inflation concerns weaken rate cut expectations, Bitcoin suffers a fall

On July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) followed XRP's lead and fell for the second consecutive trading day. Investors reacted to the unexpected U.S. personal income and outlays report, lowering their expectations for a Fed rate cut.

The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, unchanged from the increase in June, but higher than the economist's expectation of 2.7%. In addition, personal income and spending both rebounded in July, suggesting that inflationary pressures may rise again.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's estimated probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September dropped significantly from 47.6% on July 30 to 37.2% on July 31.

Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out: "People have found various reasons for the dollar's fall this year. But beneath all these appearances is a simple macro story: tariffs were supposed to push up inflation, but the effects have not materialized as quickly as people expected. And now, inflation is coming..."

If the Fed shifts to a more hawkish interest rate path, it will increase borrowing costs, suppress credit demand, and reduce the flow of funds into risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Significant Capital Outflow for US Bitcoin Spot ETF

As the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2025 fade, the demand for Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States is also weakening. According to data from Farside Investors, the main capital flow situation as of July 31 is as follows:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) net outflow of 89.90 million USD.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) net outflow of 53.6 million USD.
• BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund flow data pending. Before the IBIT data was released, the total outflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF on that day had reached $133.4 million, which may end the previous five days of capital inflow.

BTC Price Outlook: Focus on Inflation Data and ETF Capital Flows

On July 31, BTC fell by 1.69%, closing at $115,801, continuing a slight decline of 0.12% from Wednesday.

The short-term price outlook for BTC will be dominated by the following key driving factors:

• US Non-Farm Payroll Report (Jobs Report): The strength or weakness of the labor market is key to Fed decision-making.
• Fed Officials' Remarks: Follow the hawkish and dovish signals of policy direction.
• Encryption Legislation Progress: The status of the review of the "CLARITY Act" in Congress.
• BTC Spot ETF Fund Flow: Directly affects the market supply and demand balance.

Potential Scenario Analysis:

• Bearish Scenario: Stalled encryption legislation, strong U.S. employment data, and hawkish statements from the Fed combined with continuous outflows from ETFs. These factors may drag BTC towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and even test the support level of 110,000 dollars.
• Bullish Scenario: The CLARITY Act gains bipartisan support, the U.S. labor market cools down, the Fed signals dovishness, and ETF sees a return of capital inflow. Under these circumstances, BTC is expected to challenge the historical high of $122,055.

Key Market Drivers: The Key to Success or Failure of a Breakthrough

Investors need to closely follow the following core driving factors, as they will largely determine whether XRP and Bitcoin can reach new historical highs again:

1. XRP case progress: Pending SEC appeal vote.
2. Encryption Legislation Dynamics: The legislative process of the CLARITY Act.
3. U.S. Economic Data: Especially the upcoming non-farm payroll report.
4. Fed Policy Signals: Hawkish or dovish tendencies in officials' speeches.
5. ETF Market Fund Flow: The trend of fund flow is crucial for the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is at a critical crossroads. The final voting result of the SEC's appeal regarding the XRP case not only concerns the short-term price fluctuations of XRP but also has far-reaching implications for the approval prospects of its Spot ETF, becoming the biggest suspense in recent times. At the same time, on the macroeconomic front, the Fed's policy path faces adjustments due to sticky inflation, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Investors should closely follow core variables such as SEC decisions, U.S. employment data, and ETF fund flows, and flexibly adjust strategies to cautiously respond to potential price shocks in the context of ongoing regulatory uncertainty and increased market volatility. In the long run, breakthrough advancements in crypto legislation (such as the CLARITY Act) remain a key driving force for the industry's move toward the mainstream.