Ethena (ENA) Price Prediction: 40 million tokens unlocking imminent, major moving averages signaling "sell".

Today, the price of Ethena (ENA) fell along with the market, currently reported at 0.2575 USD during the Asian afternoon session. With the approach of another Token unlocking, it has continued a 17% fall over the past month.

According to Cryptonews, the recent pullback has caused ENA to remain in a cautious range of $0.2507 to $0.2659 over the past day, with price action stagnating below key resistance levels as a large-scale token unlock is imminent. According to data from Tokenomist, approximately 40.63 million ENA (worth $10.34 million) bonds will be unlocked today.

This accounts for 0.67% of the current circulating supply. Currently, the circulating supply of ENA is only 15 billion ENA, which is 39% of the maximum supply. Today's unlock is part of a broader vesting plan that may bring periodic supply pressure.

Such unlocks may temporarily enhance seller liquidity and affect market sentiment, but previous unlocks of Ethena have been absorbed and have not caused lasting negative effects. However, the timing of the unlocks brings a degree of uncertainty, especially in the context of declining trading volumes and interest in derivatives before the unlock.

In the past 24 hours, ENA trading volume has fallen by nearly 29% to $115 million, while Coinglass data shows that derivative trading volume has decreased by 37.7% to $316.75 million. Open interest has also slightly decreased to $319.06 million, reflecting some traders' hesitation before the unlock.

From a technical perspective, ENA is still under pressure. Most major moving averages from the 10-day to the 200-day have issued sell signals. The token continues to remain below the 20-day moving average and the simple moving average, indicating weak short-term momentum. The relative strength index is close to the oversold area at 41.4, but still at a neutral level.

(Source: Trading View)

Although the momentum indicators and MACD indicators show early signs of recovery, their strength is not sufficient to reverse the overall trend. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates a decrease in volatility. Prices are still trading near the lower band, which is a warning signal that may indicate a sharp fall in prices, or a reversal confirmed by volume.

If ENA successfully holds the support level of $0.25 and absorbs today's Token unlocking pressure without a fall, then the new trading volume may push it back to $0.28. If the closing price breaks above that level, it is expected to retest the range of $0.30 to $0.32.

If 0.25 dollars cannot be held, especially in the context of continuously low trading volume and increasing token circulation, ENA may face further downside risks. If it falls below 0.245 dollars, it will weaken ENA's structure, making the 0.22-0.23 dollar range the focal point, dragging down market sentiment.