Crypto Assets Market Trends and Policy Directions

Market Overview

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces multiple challenges. Chairman Powell stated that if it weren't for tariff policies potentially affecting inflation control results, the Federal Reserve might have already cut interest rates. Although there was no clear decision on the July interest rate, it hinted at increased policy flexibility, and a weakening of future employment data could lower the threshold for interest rate cuts.

At the same time, the "Big and Beautiful" tax expenditure bill passed the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill is comprehensive, involving tax cuts, reductions in social security spending, increases in military spending, and immigration enforcement budgets, and it is expected to add about $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.

In terms of trade, the leader of a certain country has taken a tough stance, insisting that the tariff deadline of July 9 remains unchanged, and has listed Japan as a key target for pressure, exacerbating tensions in the global market. It is worth noting that, due to the holiday, U.S. stock markets will be closed all day on July 4, temporarily leading to a wait-and-see period in the market.

The first licensed virtual asset exchange in a certain area showcased its offline booth at the West Kowloon High Speed Rail Station, providing convenient services to the public. Industry experts believe that the development of Web3 will reshape the paradigms of efficiency and trust. With the improvement of on-chain efficiency and the trend of institutionalization of digital assets, the region is expected to play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Crypto Assets Market

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning. Analysts pointed out that the upward momentum has weakened for the first time, potentially entering a consolidation or local top. Spot trading volume has decreased, and profit-taking has increased, with the key support level for short-term holders at a cost price of $98,700. Historical data shows that the third quarter typically performs weakly, and further reduction in volatility is expected, possibly continuing the range-bound fluctuation.

Statistics show that in the past decade, Bitcoin had a 70% probability of rising in July, with an average increase of 9.1%, supporting market expectations for a challenge of the $116,000 mark. Some pessimistic analysts warn that the real sell-off has not yet begun, predicting a possible drop below $100,000 to the $92,000-$93,000 range, and if further declines occur, it may touch a bottom of $60,000-$70,000.

On-chain market is relatively calm, but the trend of stock tokenization brings highlights. A certain trading platform's stock price has reached a new high, which in turn has driven a significant surge in related tokens on the Solana chain, with market value skyrocketing over 300 times within 3 days.

Market Data

• Bitcoin: $106,465( Year-to-date +13.8%), Daily trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 ( Year-to-date -26.88% ), Daily trading volume $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63( Greed )
• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour liquidation: 100,830 people, total amount 256 million USD

Important Events

• A trading platform will launch the Echo Protocol(ECHO)
• A certain exchange has listed Wormhole (W)
• A certain Solana staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• U.S. June employment data released
• Ethena(ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million Crypto Assets.

News Overview

• A certain cannabis company established a subsidiary to build a DOGE treasury.
• London-listed companies increase their Bitcoin investment ratio to 40%
• A Japanese gaming company plans to invest 1 billion yen in Crypto Assets investments.
• A publicly listed company has accumulated $5 million in Crypto Assets.
• An AI project announced its token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September.
• A payment company applies for a banking license in the United States to custody stablecoin reserves.
• A trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain.
• US Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July.