Crypto Market Weekly Report: Casual Games Erupt, Computing Power Projects Compete Intensively

Market Viewpoints

Macro Liquidity

The liquidity of the currency has improved. In May, the U.S. CPI fell to a three-year low year-on-year, but the Fed's dot plot still indicates only one rate cut this year, which is somewhat hawkish. The Fed's approach of trading time for space to avoid the market betting too early on rate cuts may be the best choice, leaving room for future policy operations. Major U.S. stock indices reached new highs, while the crypto market experienced wide fluctuations.

All Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin experienced wide fluctuations, and altcoins generally declined. Due to Bitcoin still attracting fiat inflows related to ETFs, while new funds entering the crypto market are limited, the performance of altcoins has been restricted. In fact, the altcoin season index has fallen back to the low levels of the first half of 2023, with only over 20 of the top 100 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the last 90 days. Market hotspots are focused on Meme coins on the Base chain, the Bitcoin ecosystem, and newly launched tokens.

1. IO: Decentralized AI Computing Power project, which may launch staking in the future. RNDR in the same track has a market cap of $4.5 billion, and AKT has a market cap of $1 billion. Market rumors suggest that after a certain platform was hit, another major exchange's new coin has started to gain momentum, making competition increasingly fierce.

2. BRETT: Base chain's meme coin, regarded as PEPE's friend. A major exchange's new wallet is attracting more users to the Base chain.

3. PIZZA: The first five-character inscription of Bitcoin, it is the first Meme coin of a certain Bitcoin L2 wallet. The Bitcoin ecosystem projects are relatively less crowded.

Bitcoin market

1. On-chain data

The trading volume of Bitcoin inscriptions has decreased. Since the halving in April, the number of inscriptions has sharply declined. Runes trading has soared to account for 60% of daily transactions, indicating that the speculation hotspot has shifted from inscriptions to the runes market.

The market value of stablecoins increased by 1%, and the overall trend of capital inflow is positive.

Institutional funds have seen a net inflow for 5 consecutive weeks, and the market anticipates that the U.S. monetary policy will undergo interest rate cuts.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z score is based on the total market cost, reflecting the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it indicates the top range; when it is less than 2, it indicates the bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the key level, with holders generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 2.3, entering the middle stage.

2. Futures Market

Futures funding rate: This week's rate has slightly decreased. When the rate is between 0.05-0.1%, there is more long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; when the rate is between -0.1-0%, there is more short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.

Futures Open Interest: This week, Bitcoin open interest has slightly decreased.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is neutral. Retail sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, below 0.7 indicates panic, above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is quite volatile, thus its reference value is somewhat diminished.

3. Spot Market

Bitcoin is experiencing wide fluctuations, and it is expected that this volatile market will continue until the end of July. The market lacks liquidity, with fewer sectoral opportunities, primarily presenting alpha opportunities in individual stocks.

Market Data

total locked amount of public chain

This week, the TVL is $111.6 billion, up $1.8 billion, an increase of 1.6%. The TVL of mainstream public chains has comprehensively declined, except for TRON. Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum all fell by 7%, BSC and Optimism fell by 11%, Blast fell by 9%, Base fell by 6%, and Merlin fell by 4%. It is worth noting that Solana's total TVL is approaching $6 billion, and with the recent significant increase in activity, it seems only a matter of time before it surpasses BSC and even TRON in total TVL.

NFT market data changes

This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market fluctuated, with the overall market continuing to decline slightly. CryptoPunks fell by 12%, BAYC fell by 8%, MAYC fell by 10%, Azuki fell by 2%, Milady fell by 3%, and Doodles fell by 16%. On the other hand, Pandora surged by 66%, Pudgy Penguins rose by 5%, Ringers increased by 24%, DeFrogs went up by 44%, and LilPudgys rose by 8%.

The overall trading volume of the NFT market has significantly declined, and the number of first-time and repeat buyers has also decreased. Overall, the NFT market has not shown any significant improvement and is still waiting for the right opportunity.