The Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy faces a complex situation, the "Big and Beautiful" bill has drawn attention.

The Federal Reserve is at a complex policy crossroads triggered by trade tariffs. Chairman Powell admitted that the Fed might have already cut interest rates if not for the tariff plans that could undermine inflation control efforts. Although he kept all possibilities open for the rate decision in July, his remarks suggest that policy flexibility is increasing, and if employment data weakens in the future, the threshold for rate cuts may be lowered.

At the same time, the fiscal policy of the U.S. government has added new variables. The highly anticipated tax and spending bill narrowly passed in the Senate, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on the Senate version on Wednesday. The bill has far-reaching implications, planning to cut taxes, reduce social safety net spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

In terms of trade, the U.S. President has taken a tough stance, clearly stating that he will not postpone the tariff deadline of July 9, and specifically targeting Japan as an object of pressure, which has heightened tensions and uncertainty in the global market. It is worth noting that due to the Independence Day holiday, the U.S. stock market will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4 and will remain closed all day on July 4, as the market enters a brief period of silence before the policy storm.

Yesterday marked the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return. Against this backdrop, Hong Kong's first licensed virtual asset exchange's offline experience booth officially debuted at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station, providing the public with convenient service channels and experiences. Relevant analysts stated that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as an important juncture for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. In the context of improving on-chain efficiency and accelerating the trend of digital asset institutionalization, Hong Kong is believed to play a leading role in the global new financial order.

Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis and Market Expectations

Bitcoin dropped to $105,000 this morning, with some analysts pointing out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening for the first time, possibly entering a consolidation phase or a local top. At the same time, the decline in spot trading volume and an increase in profit-taking behavior, with the short-term holders' cost price of $98,700 becoming a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%, and it is expected that future price volatility will further decrease, with the trend likely continuing in a range-bound fluctuation.

Data statistics show that in the past decade, Bitcoin has recorded an increase in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%. Historical data supports the market's expectation to challenge the $116,000 mark. However, relatively pessimistic analysts warn that the real sell-off has not yet begun, predicting that Bitcoin's price may fall below $100,000 to the range of $92,000 to $93,000. If it continues to decline, it could potentially reach a bottom of $60,000 to $70,000. They also pointed out that if this trend materializes, altcoins may face a further decline risk of 50% to 80%.

The on-chain market has remained relatively quiet recently, with no popular fast-moving trades, although some project prices have reached all-time highs. However, the recent trend of stocks being linked on-chain has brought some highlights. A certain listed company's stock price reached an all-time high yesterday, hitting $99.18, which also revived the Meme coin stockcoin on the Solana chain, with its market value skyrocketing from $14,000 to $4.4 million in nearly three days, increasing by 1400% within 24 hours.

Key Market Data

• Bitcoin: $106,465 (Year-to-date +13.8%), Daily spot trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 (Year-to-date -26.88%), daily spot trading volume is $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB ETH: 0.7 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1186
• Sector performance: The AI sector fell by 4.48%; the RWA sector fell by 4.72%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 256 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 77.6394 million USD, ETH liquidations of 56.1918 million USD, and SOL liquidations of 13.8666 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (107151.13 USD), lower channel line (105029.32 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2467.39), lower channel line ($2418.53)

ETF Capital Flow

As of July 1:

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million (15 consecutive days of net inflow ended)
• Ethereum ETF: +40.6798 million USD (net inflow for 3 days)

Today's Important Event Preview

• Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4th (which is 3 hours earlier on July 3rd); it will be closed all day on July 4th.
• A trading platform will launch Echo Protocol on July 2, ( ECHO ).
• A trading platform has launched Wormhole (W)
• Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• A trading platform will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd on July 4th at 4 PM.
• The number of ADP employment in the US for June is ( million ): previous value 3.7, expected 9.5 (July 2, 20:15)
• U.S. June unemployment rate: Previous value 4.2%, Expected 4.3% (July 3, 20:30)
• The U.S. June seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment ( million ): previous value 13.9, expected 11 (July 3, 20:30)
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2, which accounts for 0.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 10.7 million USD.

Top 500 Largest Price Increases Today

1. Humanity Protocol (H) increased by 106.52%
2. Cobak Token (CBK) increased by 50.90%
3. Useless Coin (USELESS) increased by 24.89%
4. Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) rose 17.70%
5. Aleo (ALEO) rose by 16.68%

Recent Hot News

1. Publicly traded cannabis companies establish subsidiaries to create DOGE treasury and related businesses.
2. London-listed companies will increase their Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to about 40%.
3. Analysis: The average increase of Bitcoin in July was 9.1%, and it may challenge the $116,000 mark in the coming weeks.
4. Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": bought another BTC, believing that Bitcoin will one day reach 1 million dollars.
5. A biotechnology company plans to acquire all equity of Conflux to expand in the blockchain field.
6. A Japanese gaming company plans to invest 1 billion yen into cryptocurrency investments, using BTC and ETH for corporate asset reserves.
7. Analysis from a trading platform: BTC usually performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%.
8. Nasdaq-listed companies have cumulatively purchased $5 million worth of HYPE, SOL, and SUI.
9. The Move Foundation's reserve wallet received 45 million $MOVE from a trading platform and currently holds 168 million coins.
10. Trusta.AI announced the $TA token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
11. A cryptocurrency project raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
12. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve (FED) to start cutting interest rates in September and to reduce them three times consecutively.
13. The Katana mainnet has officially launched, and a 1 billion KAT token incentive program has been initiated.
14. A company applies for a banking license from the United States to custody USDC reserves.
15. A trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the European Union.
16. U.S. Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July.
17. BitMine announces a private placement of $250 million and launches an Ethereum financial strategy.
18. JPMorgan gave a certain company a "reduce" rating, setting the target price at $80 by the end of 2026.