Tonight, Bitcoin ( BTC ) market will face an important moment, as the release of U.S. unemployment claims data may become a turning point for market trends. From a technical perspective, the BTC price has dropped to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, trading volume continues to decrease, and the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is hovering in the neutral zone. These signs all indicate that the market may be about to change.

If the unemployment benefit data is better than expected, it may be interpreted as the US economy remaining strong. In this case, BTC may experience a short-term rebound, but to confirm a trend reversal, it needs to break through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. However, strong economic data may also raise expectations for Fed interest rate hikes, leading to a stronger dollar, which would withdraw funds from risk assets. In this scenario, the price of BTC may fall back after rising to around $115,000, and it will be very difficult to break through the resistance at $118,000.

On the contrary, if the unemployment data falls short of expectations, the market may anticipate the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or pausing hikes. This risk-off sentiment could drive BTC prices higher, but investors also need to be wary of the potential "buy the rumor, sell the news" trap. From a technical perspective, if the BTC price falls below the $110,000 mark, it could trigger more selling, with the next support level around $108,000.

The current RSI indicator is around 40. If it quickly rises above 50 after the data is released, it could trigger technical buying; if it falls below 30, it may accelerate the decline. It is worth noting that unemployment claims data will directly impact the interest rate cut expectations for September. If the data is poor, the probability of a rate cut could quickly rise from the current 40% to 60%, which may provide upward momentum for BTC.

In addition, if the data causes fluctuations in the US stock market, Bitcoin's safe-haven property as 'digital gold' may be highlighted. However, investors should also be aware of the potential inverse relationship between BTC and physical gold.

Overall, tonight's BTC movement will be strongly influenced by unemployment data. Positive data may lead to a brief rebound, but $118,000 remains a strong resistance level; negative data could cause the price to fall below $110,000, but investors need to closely monitor the support level below. For individual investors, the focus should be on the Bollinger Band middle band and RSI 50, as these two key signals will provide important guidance for the short-term market direction.