摩根士丹利：英国 Banco Central的政策措辞可能出现鸽派微调

Golden Finance reported that Morgan Stanley expects the UK's Banco Central to support the interest rate unchanged by a vote of 6:3. However, the policy wording may indicate a dovish adjustment, suggesting possible action in November. 'Considering all the data since August and the scale of existing restrictions, we believe that the market's pricing for a rate cut in September should be slightly higher. Nonetheless, we also believe that the likelihood of a rate cut will not exceed 30%.' Morgan Stanley expects Banco Central to scale up QT next year to 100 billion pounds, previously expected to be 90 billion, but still believes that the risks tend to be lower. 'November is a key meeting for Banco Central this year. We expect it to lay the foundation for a faster pace of rate cuts, as the anti-inflationary momentum of service prices is strengthening. We expect rate cuts in November and December, and the interest rate will reach 3.25% by August next year.' (Jinshi)