#以太坊未来可不可期？#

1. The Misjudged Crypto Blue Chips
On May 1, 2025, the price of Ethereum (ETH) rebounded strongly after a brief dip to $1,760, with an intraday volatility of 12%. On the same day, whale addresses on the blockchain increased their holdings by over 400,000 ETH. Behind this counterattack is an astonishing fact revealed in the latest report by Fidelity Digital Assets: the MVRV-Z Score (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) of ETH has dropped to -0.18, entering the "seriously undervalued" range, while the number of active addresses in its Layer 2 ecosystem has surpassed 13.6 million, setting a new historical record. The drastic dislocation between technology and the market is pushing this battle for supremacy in public chains to a climax.
2. Technological Revolution:
L1 Awakening and L2 Resonance Ethereum's counterattack script began with two epoch-making technological breakthroughs: EIP-9698: L1's Jedi Strikes Back The EIP-9698 proposal proposed by senior researcher Dankrad Feist plans to skyrocket the gas cap from 36 million to 3.6 billion in four years, making Layer 1's theoretical TPS soar to 2000, directly crushing Solana's daily performance. This "highway widening operation" is divided into two phases: • 2025-2026: The gas cap will be increased tenfold to 360 million, and the number of transactions per block will jump from 180 to 6,000, and • 2027-2028: The gas cap will be increased by another 10x to achieve 2,000 transactions per second, while the risk of hard forks will be reduced through client-side voting. If the proposal is implemented, the transaction cost of the Ethereum mainnet will plummet by 90%, and the threshold for high-frequency DApp development will be greatly reduced, directly challenging the performance hegemony of Solana, Aptos and other upstarts.
The Layer2 ecosystem is experiencing a massive explosion. While the market focuses on the mainnet upgrade, Ethereum's Layer2 network has quietly built an "invisible empire:"
• User scale: Leading Layer 2s such as Arbitrum and Optimism have surpassed 5.8 million active addresses weekly, accounting for 58% of the total on-chain DeFi trading volume;
• Capital siphoning: Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are using Layer 2 to set up tokenized funds (RWA), with monthly locked-in amounts increasing by 37% to $48 billion;
• Technology Integration: Uniswap V4 launched on the Base network, achieving a hybrid architecture of "L2 liquidity aggregation + mainnet settlement," with trading slippage reduced to 0.05%. This revolution of "L1 and L2 co-evolution" is breaking the blockchain's "impossible triangle"—Fidelity's report estimates that the comprehensive TPS of the Ethereum ecosystem has reached 8500, far exceeding Solana's 3200.
3. Value Reevaluation:
Three key indicators reveal bottom signals. The market's pessimistic expectations for Ethereum dramatically contrast with positive signals from on-chain data:
Extremely undervalued valuation metrics
• MVRV-Z Score: A historical low of -0.18, equivalent to the eve of the DeFi explosion in 2020, indicating a 98% probability of being at the cycle bottom;
• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss): The zero value reflects that investors are entering the "surrender phase," similar to the characteristics at the end of the bear market in 2018;
• ETH/BTC exchange rate: a five-year low of 0.017, but Layer 2 adoption surpasses Bitcoin's ecosystem by 3.2 times, creating a strong value divergence. Institutional undercurrents are surging.
• ETF Layout: BlackRock's Ethereum Spot ETF holdings have exceeded 1.2 million units, an increase of 80% compared to three months ago;
• Staking Lockup: The proportion of ETH staked on the Beacon Chain has risen to 35%, with annualized returns from protocols like Lido reaching 5.8%, attracting continuous inflows of risk-averse capital;
• Derivatives Signal: CME Ethereum futures open interest breaks $8.2 billion, with call options accounting for 63%, the highest since 2023.
Ecological Value Capture
• Gas fee black hole ends: After the implementation of EIP-9698, the mainnet gas fee is expected to decrease to $0.001, and user retention rate will increase to 92%;
• Developer migration trend: The market share of the Solidity language has rebounded to 68%, an increase of 23 percentage points compared to the low point in 2024;
• Compliance Breakthrough: The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the Ethereum staking ETF, opening up a $120 billion traditional asset management inflow channel.
4. Counterattack Path:
The triple resonance of technology, capital, and regulation. The revival of Ethereum is no coincidence, but rather the result of multiple forces working together:
Technological Paradigm Shift
• Pectra Upgrade: The hard fork launching on May 7 will double the Blob capacity to 6, paving the way for EIP-9698;
• RISC-V Revolution: A new virtual machine architecture proposed by Vitalik that increases the execution efficiency of smart contracts by one hundred times and reduces ZK proof costs by 80%;
• Quantum Resistance: The Ethereum Foundation has collaborated with IBM to develop a quantum-resistant signature algorithm, with the mainnet deployment expected to be completed by 2026. Capital structure transformation.
• Institutional Rebalancing: Grayscale's ETHE fund discount rate narrowed to -3%, and BlackRock's IBETH saw a net inflow of $420 million in a week; • Stablecoin Migration: 75% of the reserves of mainstream stablecoins like USDC and DAI have moved to Layer 2, with an average daily settlement volume exceeding $12 billion;
• Accelerated Deflation: After the implementation of EIP-9698, the annual destruction of ETH is expected to increase to 4 million coins, entering a negative growth cycle in circulation. A glimmer of hope for regulatory breakthroughs.
• US Policy Shift: The SEC may relax the classification of ETH as a security due to pressure from the Trump administration, and the tax exemption policy for staking rewards has entered the legislative process;
• Rise of Hong Kong Hub: The launch of the digital Hong Kong dollar (e-HKD) and Ethereum cross-chain protocol enables atomic swaps between offshore RMB and ETH;
• Global Standard Output: IMF adopts Ethereum smart contracts as the RWA issuance framework, 46 central banks launch ETH cross-border settlement pilot. #Gate.io 空投发现指南#