"Signs" Before the End of the Bitcoin Bull Run

In the comments of yesterday's article, many readers expressed doubts about my assertion that Bitcoin enters a Bear Market after falling 20% from its peak.

When I was writing that part, I recalled that I had previously organized historical data on this topic, leaving a 20% impression, so I wrote it like this.

Later, upon further reflection, this 20% is the index decline used to measure the Bear Market in the stock market.

Is there a similar fall standard for Bitcoin?

I checked the data on Coingecko, which only has data since April 2013. Therefore, I summarized the data starting from that date:

I reviewed all the instances where Bitcoin fell more than 20% after surpassing the previous bull market peak (equivalent to entering a new bull market) before reaching the peak of the new bull market.

Here, the reason for choosing 20% as the fall is that I consider 20% to be a significant fluctuation, which could change the trend, while a fall of less than 20% is only regarded as normal fluctuation.

When sorting through this historical data on coingecko, I used daily price trends for statistical convenience.

According to the data starting in 2013, the first Bear Market peak was on November 29, 2013, when Bitcoin reached a Bear Market peak of 1101 dollars.

I will take this as a starting point.

On February 21, 2017, Bitcoin surpassed $1101, entering a new bull market.

From March 3, 2017 to March 24, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $1289 to a low of $940, a decline of 27%.

From June 11, 2017 to July 16, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $3013 to a low of $1927, a decrease of 36%.

From September 1, 2017 to September 14, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $4863 to a low of $3100, a drop of 36%.

From November 8, 2017 to November 12, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $7461 to a low of $5866, a decline of 21%.

On December 16, 2017, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $19,665.

On December 17, 2020, Bitcoin exceeded $19,665 and entered a new bull market.

From January 9, 2021 to January 28, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $40,815 to a low of $30,445, a decline of 25%.

From February 22, 2021 to March 1, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $57,669 to a low of $44,970, a decline of 22%.

From April 14, 2021 to July 21, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to a low of $29,971, a decrease of 53%.

It is worth noting that the famous 519 fall occurred between April 14 and July 21. Excluding the 519 fall, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to $48,981 between April 14 and April 26, with a decline of only 24%.

On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $67,617.

From the data of these two rounds:

In the bull market of 2017:

• After Bitcoin entered a Bull Market, there have been 4 instances of a fall exceeding 20% after hitting a new all-time high. In each of these major falls, the time span was within a month for 3 instances, and only 1 instance slightly exceeded 1 month.

• From the time Bitcoin entered a Bull Market (breaking the previous high in February 2017) to the peak of the Bull Market, the time span was 10 months.

• The first such fall to the lowest point was in March 2017, and the time from that low point to the peak of that bull market was December 16 of the same year, with an interval of 9 months.

In the bull market of 2021:

• After Bitcoin entered a Bull Market, there were a total of 3 instances of a fall exceeding 20% after each new high (including 519). If we exclude the 519 crash, the time span for each instance was within 1 month, while the 519 crash lasted for more than 1 month.

• From the entry of Bitcoin into a Bull Market (breaking the previous high in December 2020) to the peak of the Bull Market, the time span was 11 months.

• The first drop of this magnitude reached its lowest point in January 2021, and the time from that lowest point to the peak of that bull market was November 9 of the same year, with an interval of 10 months.

Considering the characteristics of these two bull markets:

• After entering the bull market for the second time, the frequency of such falls has decreased.

• In terms of the magnitude of the fall, if we exclude the second crash on 519, then the magnitude of such falls during the second bull market is also smaller than that of the first.

• The duration of most major falls during the two bull markets did not exceed 1 month.

• The two bull markets lasted for 1 year from the start of the bull market to reaching the peak of the bull market.

• The two bull markets are calculated from the lowest point of the first fall to the peak of the bull market, with a time span of 1 year.

Let's take another look at the state of this market cycle:

Bitcoin surpassed $67,617 on March 9, 2024, entering its own Bull Market.

From March 14, 2024 to September 7, 2024, Bitcoin fell from $73,097 to a low of $53,923, a drop of 26%.

From December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, Bitcoin fell from $106,074 to a low of $76,329, a decline of 28%.

Although the falls in both instances were not large, the time span has significantly lengthened, spanning nearly half a year. From the perspective of the span, this time has clearly shown different characteristics in the fall compared to the two previous bull markets.

So how is the correlation between this Bitcoin movement and the US stock market?

We can take a look at the trend of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P 500 Index is rising from March 14 to September 7, 2024; it is expected to fall from approximately 6050 to 5456 between December 17, 2024, and April 9, 2025, a decline of 10%.

This trend doesn't look much like Bitcoin.

If we count from the entry of this round of Bitcoin into a Bull Market (March 2024), theoretically the Bull Market should end in March 2025. Obviously, this rule does not apply this time.

However, if we calculate from the lowest point of the first fall mentioned above, theoretically, the bull market will end in September 2025.

Let's wait and see if the actual situation will be like this.