Market Dynamics: Bond yields soar, trade friction re-emerges, Bitcoin remains at high levels

Macro Environment Analysis

Long-term Japanese bond yields have reached new highs, and the macro environment is tightening, with gold and Bitcoin demonstrating safe-haven properties. Some analysts believe that the differentiation in global central bank policies and concerns over the credit of U.S. Treasuries in 2025 may accelerate the shift of capital from traditional assets to crypto assets. For example, the recent significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a manifestation of the current environment: Taiwanese investors originally held a large amount of U.S. Treasury assets and engaged in circular pledging, but the continuous decline in U.S. Treasury prices led to passive deleveraging, and panic sentiment forced funds to flow back to Taiwan after selling, resulting in a substantial short-term appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar.

Therefore, investors should pay attention to the signals of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, US Treasury auction data, and Bitcoin on-chain metrics to grasp the changes in capital flows and market sentiment. Although Bitcoin has historically been highly volatile, its role as a hedge in diversified investment portfolios is becoming increasingly prominent, especially as the traditional financial system faces dual challenges of credit and inflation.

Trade Friction Heats Up

In May 2025, the tariff negotiations between Europe and the United States remained tense. At the beginning of the year, the United States imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on the European Union, covering multiple sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles, prompting the EU to respond with retaliatory tariffs on American goods. On May 23, reports indicated that the U.S. suggested imposing a direct 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, which led to a slight pullback in Bitcoin. On May 26, it was reported that the EU requested an extension of the trade negotiation window, and the U.S. agreed to extend the deadline to July 9. Following this announcement, Bitcoin rebounded and briefly broke through $109,000.

Market Data Overview (as of May 26, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $109,677 (Year-to-date +17.41%), Daily trading volume $46.66 billion
• Ethereum: $2560 (Year-to-date -23.43%), Daily trading volume $14.03 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB ETH: 0.39 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.3%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, Bitcoin, AERGO, NXPC, WCT
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9782
• Sector Gains and Losses: AI (+3.29%), SocialFi (-0.5%)
• 24-hour liquidation data: 85,825 people globally have been liquidated, with a total amount of $202 million, including $41 million in BTC liquidations, $48 million in ETH liquidations, and $7.66 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend: upper edge 103016.97 USD, lower edge 100977.03 USD
• ETH medium to long-term trend: upper edge 2389.95 USD, lower edge 2342.62 USD

ETF Capital Flow (as of May 23)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$211 million
• Ethereum ETF: +0.58 million USD

Today's Important Events

• The 212th Ethereum ACDC meeting: Fusaka Devnet-0 will be launched on May 26.
• The US stock market will be closed for one day on May 26.
• A certain public blockchain announced the Maxwell hard fork: block time will be shortened to 0.75 seconds, and the testnet will be upgraded first on May 26.
• Initia has released a proposal for inflation adjustment and staking exit subsidies, aiming to significantly reduce the inflation rate to an annualized 1.25%.
• Today's top 100 market cap largest gainers: HYPE up 11.1%, VIRTUAL up 9.1%, EOS up 7.5%, ZEC up 6.5%

Hot News

• Whale James Wynn once again opened a PEPE long position with 10x leverage.
• HYPE's market cap surpasses SUI, ranking 13th in cryptocurrency market cap.
• Inferno Drainer uses Ethereum's EIP-7702 to implement a new type of attack, resulting in a single loss of $150,000.
• A certain L2 network supported by a cryptocurrency exchange plans to undergo a major upgrade to challenge Solana.
• The Dubai Land Department has launched a real estate tokenization project in collaboration with the tokenization platform Ctrl Alt.
• The deadline for tariff negotiations between the United States and the European Union has been extended to July 9.