Crypto Market Dynamics: Bond Market Fluctuation and Trade Friction Impact on Bitcoin Trend

Market Observation

Long-term Japanese bond yields have reached new highs, and the macro environment is tightening, with gold and Bitcoin demonstrating their hedging functions. Analysts believe that the differentiation of global central bank policies and concerns about U.S. Treasury credit in 2025 may accelerate the flow of funds from traditional assets to crypto assets. For example, the recent surge of the New Taiwan Dollar reflects this trend: Taiwanese investors hold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries and engage in circular pledging, and the decline in U.S. Treasury prices leads to passive deleveraging, while panic sentiment prompts funds to flow back to Taiwan, pushing up the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar. Investors should pay attention to signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, U.S. Treasury auction data, and on-chain indicators of Bitcoin to grasp the flow of funds and changes in market sentiment. Although Bitcoin has historically been highly volatile, its hedging role in diversified investment portfolios is becoming increasingly prominent, especially when the traditional financial system faces dual challenges of credit and inflation.

In May 2025, the tariff dispute between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. At the beginning of the year, the U.S. implemented tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various sectors including steel, aluminum, and automobiles from the EU, prompting retaliatory measures from the EU. On May 23, reports suggested that the U.S. proposed to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, leading to a slight correction in Bitcoin. On May 26, news emerged that the EU was seeking to extend the trade negotiation deadline, and the U.S. agreed to postpone the deadline to July 9. Following this announcement, Bitcoin briefly rebounded, surpassing $109,000.

Key Data (As of May 26, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $109,677 (Year-to-Date +17.41%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $46.66 billion
• Ethereum: $2560 (Year-to-date -23.43%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $14.03 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB ETH: 0.39 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.3%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, Bitcoin, AERGO, NXPC, WCT
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9782
• Sector fluctuation: AI (+3.29%), SocialFi (-0.5%)
• 24-hour liquidation data: 85,825 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount of 202 million USD, including 41 million USD in BTC liquidations, 48 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 7.66 million USD in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper edge 103016.97 USD, lower edge 100977.03 USD
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper edge $2389.95, Lower edge $2342.62

Note: A price above the upper and lower bounds indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend, while the opposite indicates a bearish trend; if the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flow (as of May 23)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$211 million
• Ethereum ETF: +0.58 million USD

Today's Outlook

• The 212th Ethereum ACDC Conference: Fusaka Devnet-0 will go live on May 26.
• The US stock market is closed on May 26.
• A certain public chain announced a hard fork: the block time will be shortened to 0.75 seconds, and the testnet will be upgraded on May 26.
• Initia has released a proposal for inflation adjustment and staking exit subsidies, aiming to significantly reduce the inflation rate to an annualized 1.25%.
• Today's top 100 market cap biggest fluctuations: HYPE up 11.1%, VIRTUAL up 9.1%, EOS up 7.5%, ZEC up 6.5%

Hot News

• Renowned investor James Wynn once again opened a PEPE long position with 10x leverage.
• HYPE's market value surpasses SUI, ranking 13th in the crypto market by market capitalization.
• Inferno Drainer utilizes Ethereum's EIP-7702 to implement a new type of attack, resulting in a single loss of $150,000.
• A Layer 2 network supported by a crypto trading platform is planning a major upgrade to enhance performance.
• The Dubai Land Department collaborates with the tokenization platform Ctrl Alt to launch a real estate tokenization project.
• The deadline for tariff negotiations between the United States and the European Union has been extended to July 9.