Macro favourable information drives the crypto market pump, Bitcoin chip concentration rises

Market Observation

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has alleviated geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite. Crude oil prices have retreated to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly fell below the $3,300 mark. The Federal Reserve Chairman sent positive signals during a congressional hearing, although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he stated that more data is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation. He hinted that the September meeting might be more likely to decide a policy shift. This remark was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad surge in U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high, the Dow Jones soared 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in sync with the dollar.

In terms of regulation, a certain cryptocurrency exchange platform is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch tokenized stock trading services. If the plan is approved, the platform will utilize blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokerages and crypto platforms. Additionally, after the new management of the SEC took office, there has been a change in the regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry, with several lawsuits against crypto companies being withdrawn and the establishment of a crypto working group to formulate digital asset regulations.

Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under macro favourable information, but its performance is relatively restrained. According to analysts, the concentration of chips within 5% range of the current spot price of Bit has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant volatility. Several technical analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend, believing that the price may consolidate at current levels, and if it breaks through $107,000, it is expected to reach $110,000; otherwise, it may fall below $102,000.

Regarding Ethereum, a trading platform experienced a large-scale withdrawal of funds on June 23, with over 4000 BTC and 61000 ETH flowing out from the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to a long-term holding strategy. Some analysts point out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, as its profit supply ratio is much lower than that of Bitcoin, showing potential for catch-up growth. However, there are also opinions suggesting that ETH's price has failed to break through $3000 for over 20 weeks, which has damaged market confidence, and it is facing fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above the $3000 level in the short term.

In the market, the interaction between a public chain official and KOL has triggered a new Meme coin craze, with multiple projects' market values quickly rising before retreating. Traditional finance's layout in the encryption field is accelerating, as a US stock company announces a $500 million convertible bond acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve, driving its stock price to surge 150% in a single day. The Hong Kong market has also seen breakthrough progress, as the first Chinese-funded securities firm obtains a comprehensive license for virtual assets, offering mainstream coin trading services, with news stimulating its Hong Kong stock price to rise over 100% at its peak during trading.

Key Data (As of June 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume is $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector rise and fall: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 34.3663 million USD and ETH liquidations of 68.176 million USD.

ETF Flows (As of June 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$71,237,900

Today's Outlook

• The H contract and Alpha trading on a certain trading platform are scheduled to open on June 25 at 17:30 and 17:00 respectively.
• The Kroma L2 network will close on June 26, and $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.
• A trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26 (SAHARA)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee regarding the semiannual monetary policy report. (June 25, 22:00)
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens soon, including Venom, AltLayer, IOTA, Velo, Blast, and Undeads Games.

Hot News

• "The three-time warrior ETH with a 100% win rate whale" has once again increased its position in ETH short positions in the early morning, with the current position valued at 122 million USD.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holding by 12,207 ETH with an investment of $30.67 million, raising the total holdings to 188,478 ETH.
• A certain US stock company announced a private placement of $500 million in convertible notes for a certain cryptocurrency strategic reserve, with the stock price pumping over 150%.
• ProCap invested 387 million USD to acquire 3724 Bitcoins
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million to purchase Bitcoin.
• Trump calls Powell again: interest rates should be cut by at least 2 to 3 percentage points.
• A certain South Korean exchange will launch trading pairs for Newton (NEWT) with KRW, BTC, and USDT.
• Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) Trust is registered in Delaware.
• Celestia co-founder: Has over $100 million in capital reserves, sufficient to support operations for more than 6 years.
• A suspected ConsenSys related address has purchased 3,704 ETH again, worth $8.91 million.