Favourable Information in the macro environment drives the Crypto Assets market to pump, Bitcoin breaks through $106,000

The recent macro environment has shown a positive turnaround. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significantly eased, boosting market risk appetite, with crude oil prices falling back to pre-conflict levels and gold briefly dipping below the $3300 mark. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Chairman released important signals during a congressional hearing: while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait for the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, a "sooner rather than later" rate cut could occur, but the current strong economy does not require hasty action, while also pointing out that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying a rate cut.

The market interprets this statement as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, which has driven U.S. stocks to surge across the board—Nasdaq 100 hitting a historical high, the Dow soaring 500 points in a single day, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar decline simultaneously. Notably, the Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the independence of monetary policy in response to pressure for interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. Meanwhile, industry observations indicate that U.S. shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional price volatility adjustment mechanism for energy.

In terms of regulation, a certain crypto assets trading platform is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low barriers to entry, lower costs, and around-the-clock trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms, and challenging the position of traditional internet brokers. In addition, the SEC's new management has changed its regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry, not only dismissing lawsuits against several crypto companies but also establishing a crypto working group to formulate regulations for digital assets. Industry insiders believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading while providing investors with more diverse and flexible trading options.

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under favourable macro conditions, but its performance is relatively restrained. The founder of a research institution stated that the 13% rise in Bitcoin from the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. According to analysts' observations, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the current spot Bitcoin price has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience significant fluctuations. From a technical analysis perspective, several technical analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend, believing that the price may consolidate at the current level; if it breaks through $107,000, it is likely to test $110,000, otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000.

Regarding Ethereum, an analyst from a certain data analysis platform stated that a certain trading platform experienced a large-scale withdrawal of funds on June 23, with over 4000 BTC and 61000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Another data analysis agency further pointed out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may experience a significant pump, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, demonstrating potential for a catch-up. However, some analysts hold a different view, arguing that the ETH price has failed to break through 3000 USD for over 20 weeks, which has affected market confidence, and it faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above the 3000 USD level in the short term.

In the market, several emerging token projects have attracted attention. Among them, a project claimed to be developed by a team under a certain AI foundation has quickly reached a market value of $18 million with the concept of "cross-Web2 and Web3 intelligent agents". The project claims to have former members of well-known AI companies involved in its development and employs a mechanism that allocates 20% of tokens to attract investors.

In addition, traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layout in the crypto field. A US-listed company announced the acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, aiming to hold 5%-10% of the circulating supply of that coin, which led to a single-day surge of 150% in the company's stock price. The Hong Kong market has also seen breakthrough progress, as a Chinese-funded brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to provide trading services for mainstream coins. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price, with the intraday highest increase exceeding 100%, driving up the stock prices of related enterprises.

Key Data (as of June 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily spot trading volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume is $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long to short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector Rise and Fall: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million dollars, including BTC liquidations of 34.3663 million dollars and ETH liquidations of 68.176 million dollars.

ETF Flow (as of June 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$71,237.9

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will open H contracts and Alpha trading on June 25.
• The Kroma L2 network will shut down on June 26, $KRO needs to migrate to Ethereum.
• A trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26 (SAHARA)
• The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report (June 25, 22:00)
• Multiple crypto assets projects will unlock tokens in the near future, including Venom, AltLayer, IOTA, Velo, Blast, and Undeads Games.

Hot News

• "Three Wars ETH 100% Win Rate Whale" has increased its short position in ETH, with the current position valued at 122 million USD.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH, bringing the total holdings to 188,478.
• A publicly listed company announced a private placement of $500 million in convertible notes for its Crypto Assets strategic reserves, with the stock price rising over 150%.
• ProCap invested $387 million to acquire 3,724 Bitcoins
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million for the purchase of Bitcoin.
• Trump calls for a rate cut of at least 2 to 3 percentage points again.
• A South Korean exchange will launch the Newton (NEWT) trading pairs with KRW, BTC, and USDT.
• Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) Trust registered in Delaware
• Celestia co-founder stated that it has over $100 million in reserve funds, sufficient to support operations for more than 6 years.
• A suspected ConsenSys-related address has purchased 3,704 ETH again, worth 8.91 million USD.