2024 Crypto Market Review and 2025 Outlook

2024 is a milestone year in the history of cryptocurrency. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the U.S. elections have become the two core narratives driving breakthroughs in the crypto market. Publicly listed companies, traditional financial institutions, and even national governments are entering this field, significantly increasing the mainstream acceptance and recognition of crypto assets. After the new government takes office, the regulatory environment is also gradually becoming clearer and more lenient. Mainstream integration, path differentiation, and regulatory evolution have become the main themes of the crypto industry this year.

2024 Review: Bitcoin Reaches New Heights, Ethereum Being Chased, MEME Popularity Unabated

Bitcoin is undoubtedly the core asset of 2024. The approval of ETFs and national reserves has pushed it past the $100,000 mark, marking Bitcoin's evolution beyond a mere cryptocurrency into a globally recognized anti-inflation asset and a means of value storage. Bitcoin is moving from digital gold towards a super-sovereign currency, with Satoshi Nakamoto's financial experiment achieving a phased victory. Furthermore, the Bitcoin ecosystem is also expanding; inscriptions, runes, and Layer 2 have shown fluctuations, but a diverse ecosystem has begun to take shape. The total value locked in Bitcoin DeFi has surged from $300 million at the beginning of the year to $6.755 billion, growing more than 20 times throughout the year.

Ethereum is facing considerable pressure this year. Compared to other assets, its performance has fallen short of expectations, with both value capture and user activity declining. Although the call for a DeFi revival is loud, actual investment is insufficient, aside from the TVL nesting trend caused by re-staking. The emergence of the new derivatives star Hyperliquid at the end of the year not only impacts centralized exchanges but also brings new opportunities to DeFi. On the other hand, after the Dencun upgrade, the competition among Layer 2 solutions has intensified, encroaching on the market share of the mainnet and sparking a major discussion about Ethereum's mechanism.

In stark contrast is the strong rise of Solana. In terms of TVL, Ethereum's market share in the public chain has decreased from 58.38% at the beginning of the year to 55.59%, while Solana has surged from almost zero to 6.9%, becoming the second largest public chain after Ethereum. The price of SOL has risen from 6 dollars two years ago to around 200 dollars, with over 100% increase just this year. With low costs and high efficiency, Solana has become the king of MEME and a hub for retail investors.

MEME has become a major driving force in the market this year. Although its market capitalization share is not high, its trading volume share continues to be around 6-7%, peaking at even 11%, making it one of the most concentrated liquidity tracks. According to the data, MEME accounts for 30.67% of investor attention, ranking first among all tracks. Presale fundraising, celebrity tokens, Zoo Battles, PolitFi, and AI-related MEME projects have repeatedly become industry hot topics.

As the U.S. elections approach, the prediction market application Polymarket has emerged strongly. In October alone, its website traffic reached 35 million visits, double that of mainstream betting sites, with monthly trading volume skyrocketing from $40 million in April to $2.5 billion. Although it has not been able to convert crypto users on a large scale, a new fusion model of media and betting is quietly rising.

At the end of the year, AI is rising again in the Web3 field. Truth Terminal is driving projects like GOAT, ACT, and Fartcoin to quickly gain popularity, igniting a wave of AI Agent applications. Currently, the infrastructure in this field is still not完善, and applications are mostly concentrated on MEME, Bot, and other superficial aspects. The deep integration of AI and encryption still awaits exploration.

PayFi, as a bridge connecting traditional finance and Web3, has also attracted attention. Stablecoins hold a significant position in the global payment and remittance market, with a total circulation value exceeding $210 billion. RWA has been completely ignited after BlackRock's entry, expanding from less than $2 billion three years ago to $14 billion. Governments in places like Hong Kong have also prioritized stablecoins and RWA as key development areas.

2025 Outlook: New Cycle, New Applications, New Directions

Looking ahead to 2025, with the new government taking office and institutional funds entering the market, the crypto market is expected to welcome a new round of growth. Several institutions predict that the price of Bitcoin will reach $150,000 to $200,000, with some institutions even giving an optimistic forecast of $500,000. ETH is expected to rise to $6,000 to $7,000, SOL may touch $500 to $750, and SUI is expected to rise to $10. The total market capitalization of crypto is projected to reach $7.5 to $8 trillion.

From a specific track perspective, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and AI are the areas of greatest interest to institutions. The settlement volume of stablecoins is expected to reach $300-450 billion. The value of tokenized securities is expected to exceed $50 billion. The combination of AI and encryption will further deepen, with the total market value of AI-related tokens expected to grow at least 5 times.

The revival of DeFi, the integration of application chains and L2, the popularization of ZK technology, the growth of the DEPIN industry, and the resurgence of NFTs are all viewed positively by institutions. Overall, the crypto market is expected to continue to develop favorably in terms of price, ecosystem, and mainstream adoption by 2025.

For investors, the price increase of mainstream cryptocurrencies has become inevitable, especially with the concentrated positive developments expected in Q1 2025. The altcoin market will continue to differentiate, with projects that have strong compliance more likely to attract funding. The impact of new public chains cannot be ignored, and leading public chains like Ethereum and Solana will also face new challenges and opportunities. Consumer-grade applications will become a focus, with DeFi, payments, and MEME sectors worth paying attention to. The stablecoins, AI, RWA, and DePin sectors favored by institutions are also expected to accelerate their development.

A new cycle is about to arrive. Investors need to discover and adapt to the cycle, conduct in-depth research and participate in order to seize opportunities.