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Bitcoin resilience tested, follow $95,000 support, geopolitical situation affects crypto market.
Geopolitical conflicts intensify, Bitcoin's $95,000 support level is in focus, Ethereum faces a test at $2,036.
1. Market Observation
Keywords: crude oil, Ethereum, Bitcoin
Significant fluctuations were observed in the global financial markets when they opened on Monday, primarily due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The spot gold price surged to $3398 per ounce, while Nasdaq futures fell by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil prices opened 3.7% higher. Nevertheless, the initial market reaction was relatively restrained. Some analysts predict that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices will retreat to $60 per barrel, but continued tensions could drive prices up to $130 per barrel. Against this backdrop, the movement of the US dollar has become the market focus.
Recently, the global financial markets have been violently shaken due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, gold prices soared by 3.17% from June 11 to June 13, but after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 18, gold faced selling pressure, dropping about 0.6% by June 21. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price around 100,000 USD, and has only fluctuated between 100,000 and 110,000 USD over the past 42 days. Some believe that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, as its decentralized and limited supply characteristics become increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty.
In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after dropping below $99,000. According to analysis, there may be three scenarios for Bitcoin's future trajectory: maintaining the current range and reaching new highs; dropping below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or testing $95,000 before regaining $100,000 and further rising to the range of $114,000 to $116,000. Specific resistance levels are $104,000, $106,000, and $110,000, while support levels are $98,000 and $95,000. Some analysts have pointed out that if Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test $95,000 again as well as the bull market support zone. At the same time, some opinions suggest that Bitcoin is approaching the key support of the daily EMA-100 moving average, and if the daily closing price falls below $99,000, it could trigger a further decline towards the range of $92,000 to $94,000.
In terms of Ethereum, some analyses indicate that its performance remains weak, with prices constrained by a descending trend line, having broken below the previously important support level of $2378, and showing a bearish technical pattern. It is advised to follow its performance at the resistance level of $2378; if it cannot break through, it may further drop to the demand levels of $2114 or even $2036.
While mainstream coins are consolidating, the altcoin market is also relatively flat. A token named $BlackCoin has emerged on the Solana chain, with its market story revolving around an AI-generated "dark web coin," claiming to be used for shadow markets and illegal trading networks, with a current market cap of approximately $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hotspots is $Oil, which positions itself as "digital oil," currently having a market cap of about $2.9 million. Meanwhile, a fast pass $ERC-69 has appeared on the Ethereum chain, launched through Klik, inspired by a fictional proposal created by AI, with its market cap once soaring to $11 million.
2. Key Data (as of June 23, 12:00 HKT)
3. ETF Flows (as of June 20)
4. Today's Outlook
Top 500 market cap biggest gains today: FUN Token ( FUN ) up 67.51%, Banana For Scale ( BANANAS 31) up 21.43%, Bubblemaps ( BMT ) up 13.79%, Keeta ( KTA ) up 11.06%, XPR Network ( XPR ) up 10.83%.
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