Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind the Recent Surge of the Sui Ecosystem

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced significant growth, with its governance token SUI increasing by over 75% within a week, far surpassing the overall market performance. This phenomenon is intertwined with multiple complex factors, including speculative enthusiasm sparked by market rumors, noticeable changes in capital flow, and ongoing improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the funding dynamics of SUI's recent surge, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the logic behind this ecological prosperity.

Capital Flow Analysis: Hot Money Flowing into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

In terms of on-chain fund flow, Sui has shown a net outflow of 32 million USD in the past three months, which is relatively small. The changes in on-chain fund flow in the past month and the past week are even negligible, failing to even make it into the top twenty among public chains.

However, the fund flow of the exchange shows a significant influx of capital into the Sui ecosystem. Data indicates that the spot fund inflow of SUI reached $62.86 million in the past seven days, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. During the same period, the contract fund inflows of Sui network ecosystem tokens such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS also made it to the top ten, reflecting the capital activity within the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of SUI tokens surged dramatically starting from April 21, increasing from 700 million to 1.419 billion within a week, nearing the historical high of 1.5 billion.

Most tokens in the Sui ecosystem have also seen significant increases within a week. Data shows that in the past week, 35 Sui ecosystem tokens rose by more than 100%, accounting for 20%; 37.5% of the tokens increased by more than 50%, indicating a comprehensive upward trend.

Market Sentiment Drivers

On April 21, mainstream tokens generally rebounded, and the rise of Sui was also initiated. Subsequently, several positive news items were released, but it is difficult to determine whether these news items are the true driving force behind the rise or a strategically timed release to accompany the price increase.

The main positive news includes:

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy for the Pokémon HOME application, listing Parasol Technologies, which was acquired by the Sui core development team, as an authorized developer.

2. xMoney/xPortal Collaboration: Sui announced a partnership with these platforms to launch the Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe.

3. ETF-related news: 21Shares established the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity as early as January 2025, and this news has recently gained renewed attention.

4. Other developments: including the Athens Stock Exchange Group building an on-chain fundraising platform on Sui, and Nautilus bringing verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui.

These developments cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments, forming an overall positive landscape.

DEX Trading Volume Analysis and Developer Activity

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained at a high level, reaching a historical peak of $998 million on March 29. The leading DEX in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven overall growth, with its recent trading volume increasing by 84.5%. Another important contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29.

The surge in trading volume of these DEXs may be related to the airdrop of Walrus. On March 27, Walrus announced the airdrop, and on that day the trading volume of the token reached 380 million dollars.

In terms of developer activity, the frequency of GitHub code submissions for the Sui network significantly increased from December 2024, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far exceeding that of Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risk Factors

1. Token unlocking pressure: SUI has tens of millions of tokens unlocked every week, continuously creating selling pressure.

2. Unbalanced ecological structure: The rise of the Sui ecosystem is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, while application and game projects have not performed prominently. Currently, tokens with higher market capitalization are still mainly early projects.

Conclusion

The recent surge of Sui and its ecosystem is the result of the collective effects of market speculation enthusiasm, influx of funds, expectations in the contract market, and fundamental progress. However, while paying attention to price performance, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the pressure brought by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and to focus on whether the application ecosystem can further thrive, as this will determine whether Sui can convert the current hype into long-term value.