Analysis: If Trump fires Powell, it would undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve (FED) and could directly trigger an economic recession.

BlockBeats news, on April 20, Evercore ISI analysts stated that any attempt by the Trump administration to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell "will lead to a surge in stagflation trades," but the realization of such dismissal "is unlikely." The movements in the bond and forex markets indicate that the market has lost confidence in Trump's economic policies. However, there are currently no signs that the market has lost confidence in the Federal Reserve, as inflation expectation indicators remain at low levels. Any action that undermines the independence of the Fed will lead to a spike in long-term yields due to inflation risks, a sharp steepening of the yield curve, a big dump of the dollar, and a comprehensive rise in various risk premiums, including equity risk premiums, which is likely to directly trigger an economic recession. (Jin10)