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Analyst: Bitcoin's annual trend indicates that the cycle top will approach $205,000 by the end of the year.
Gate News bot message, since June 11, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a moderate pullback, falling from around $111,000 to just above $104,000 at the time of writing this article. Although escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may put pressure on the asset, some analysts believe that BTC's long-term bullish trend remains intact.
In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake article, author Carmelo Aleman pointed out that the annual percentage trend of Bitcoin suggests that BTC prices will have strong potential for growth for the remainder of 2025.
For beginners, the annual percentage trend of Bitcoin tracks the annual price performance of Bitcoin since 2011, revealing a recurring pattern of one year of consolidation following three years of bullish markets. This trend is closely related to Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, helping investors identify long-term market phases beyond short-term fluctuations.
Aleman shared the following chart to support his outlook for 2025. If BTC maintains the growth rate typically seen in the third year of this cycle, it could rise by 120% by 2025.
(Source: CryptoQuant)
Such a surge would drive the BTC price from $93,226 at the beginning of the year to $205,097, which could mark the peak of this year's cycle. If this expectation materializes, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of rise for BTC, completing another full bullish market cycle.
This situation indicates that BTC is currently in the final stage of its current cycle, and investors have limited time to adjust their strategies to adapt to the market growth trajectory. Supporting this outlook is the fact that other cyclical indicators (such as actual market cap) will continue to hit record highs in 2025.
Aleman concluded that the annual percentage trend of Bitcoin is a tool that allows us to filter out daily market noise and re-recognize the true cyclicality of Bitcoin. It reminds us that, beyond micro indicators and short-term candlestick charts, Bitcoin follows a structural rhythm that reappears with astonishing consistency: three years of expansion, followed by one year of compression.