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https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/45974
IMF President Kristalina Georgieva warned that the U.S. crackdown on Iran would bring greater risks.
Gate News bot reports that, according to Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva warned that as global uncertainty increases, the U.S. strikes against Iran could have broader impacts beyond the energy channels.
Georgieva said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday: "We believe that in a highly uncertain environment, this is yet another source of uncertainty." So far, the biggest shock has come from energy prices, and the International Monetary Fund is closely monitoring this issue, but "there could also be secondary or even tertiary effects. If more turbulence occurs that impacts the growth prospects of major economies, it could trigger a downward revision of the global growth outlook."
On Monday morning in Asia, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price surged by 5.7% to $81.40 per barrel, before giving back most of the gains in volatile trading.
In April of this year, the International Monetary Fund has downgraded the global growth outlook for this year and warned that the U.S.-led world trade "restart" will slow economic growth. Georgieva stated that the situation in the first two quarters of this year indicates that this trend is still ongoing. Although the global economy is expected to avoid recession, uncertainties are also rising, which often dampens growth prospects.
The United States launched an unprecedented airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, causing global traders and governments to be on edge as countries prepare for Iran's response. President Donald Trump decided to deploy bunker buster bombs to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which has pushed the situation in the Middle East into uncharted territory and heightened geopolitical risks at a time when the world economy is facing serious uncertainty due to trade tensions.
Georgieva stated that more urgently, the IMF is particularly focused on how the developments in conflicts will affect the risk premiums of oil and gas. In the oil market, option trading volumes are soaring, and the futures curve has also changed to reflect the tensions brought by short-term supply tightness.
"Let's see how things develop," she said, adding that she was watching whether the energy supply routes would be disrupted or if it would affect other countries. "I pray it won't."
As for the U.S. economy itself, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund stated that she believes deflation will persist, although the current state of the U.S. is not yet sufficient for the Federal Reserve to confidently lower interest rates.
Georgieva stated: "We expect that by the end of the year, the Federal Reserve may make a judgment that the timing for a rate cut may have arrived." She pointed out that the strong performance of the U.S. labor market and steady wage growth will boost consumers.
At the same time, she warned that the greater the volatility, the worse the situation for businesses.
"What happens when there is uncertainty? Investors do not invest, consumers do not consume, which will suppress growth prospects."