HTX DeepThink: Fluctuation rise, demand decline, large number of Options expiring in June testing market structure stability.

According to Deep Tide TechFlow news, on June 27, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that over 15 billion USD in BTC options and 2.3 billion USD in ETH options will expire today (data source: Deribit & Crypto.ro), with the Put/Call ratio for BTC being approximately 0.74 and for ETH approximately 0.52, with corresponding "maximum pain points" located at 102,000 USD and 2,200 USD respectively. Concentrated closing positions and rollovers before expiration may amplify short-term fluctuations, but speculators remain enthusiastic about bullish contracts with strike prices of 110,000 USD and 120,000 USD.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's "Demand Momentum Index" has fallen to an all-time low. Despite the release of the GENIUS Act and the new Hong Kong stablecoin policy, the price still struggles to break through the previous high; the implied volatility of Options has surged sharply, especially with active buying of put Options, indicating that the market is seeking downside protection. The actions of off-chain large holders are also worth noting:

Binance's BTC inflow in June plummeted to 5,700 coins, GameStop raised $450 million through convertible bonds and has increased its holdings by about 4,710 BTC, while Metaplanet purchased another 1,234 coins, bringing the total holdings to 12,345 coins. On the regulatory front, the U.S. FHFA has requested that compliant exchanges' holdings be included in mortgage risk assessments, the SEC is accelerating the review of the Bitcoin ETF's physical redemption mechanism, and the Republic platform plans to issue equity tokens for private companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI with a threshold of $50–5,000.

In the face of the market pattern of "high leverage amplifying fluctuations and low demand suppressing rises," investors may need to moderately reduce leverage and cautiously apply the Gamma strategy; the large inflows from the over-the-counter market and the turning point of net purchases in ETFs, as well as the new opportunities brought by compliance, are worth paying attention to. In terms of the development prospects of compliant stablecoin applications, Sei has already shown potential.