Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Perfect Storm Drives Market Sentiment, BTC Spot ETF Expected to Achieve Six Days of Continuous Inflows

After Bitcoin (BTC) set a historical high of 117 million USD, it continues to trade around 116,600 USD in the Asian early session today (11). A perfect storm is driving market sentiment, and Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to see inflows for six consecutive days. Analysts believe the target price for Bitcoin could reach 120,000 USD.

A perfect storm has been created by various factors in the market, pushing BTC to an all-time high, including:

1. With the continuous changes in key legislation, including the CLARITY Act, the regulatory landscape will be the focus of the week of July 14 (referred to as "Crypto Week");

2. Bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the third quarter continue to increase. The Federal Reserve Watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that the probability of a rate cut in September is 70.3%, up from 68.1% on July 3;

3. The tensions in Sino-US trade and concerns about a US economic recession have eased. According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of a US economic recession is 19%, down from 66% in May.

4. Increase institutional demand by holding corporate bonds and Spot ETFs.

The US Bitcoin Spot ETF market is expected to achieve six consecutive days of inflows

The key catalyst behind the rise of Bitcoin on July 10 also stimulated demand for the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF. Continuous fund inflows over five days have also driven this week's price trends. According to Farside Investors, ETF issuers reported a net inflow of $215.7 million on July 9. The main fund inflows on July 10 include:

· Fidelity Research Origin Bitcoin Spot ETF (FBTC) reports a net inflow of 324.3 million USD

· ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF (ARKB) net inflow of $268.7 million

· Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's net inflows totaled $159.1 million.

As of the announcement of the fund inflow data for BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT), the total inflow for Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States has reached 727.1 million USD. It is worth noting that in the past 22 trading days, there have been net inflows on 21 trading days in the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market, with a total inflow scale of 6.612 billion USD.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci commented on the Bitcoin spot ETF market, saying: "I remember many traditional financial institutions telling me that spot Bitcoin ETF investors equate to withdrawing liquidity... Since the launch of the ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin has risen by 150%. Now, traditional financial institutions are clearly scrambling to join in."

Bitcoin Price Analysis

FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason stated that recent price trends depend on several key factors, including trade developments, legislative updates, Federal Reserve speeches, and spot ETF liquidity trends. Possible scenarios:

Bearish scenario: Escalation of trade tensions, legislative barriers, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and outflows from ETF funds. The combined effect of these factors may pull Bitcoin down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, the Fed hinting at a dovish stance, and ETF inflows. In these scenarios, the target price for Bitcoin could reach $120,000.

(Source: Trading View)