Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC break through 125,000 USD or fall back to 110,000 USD?

Last week, Bitcoin made a strong breakthrough of historical highs, pushing the price to a peak of over $119,000. Since then, BTC seems to have entered a brief consolidation period. As of the time of writing, Gate market shows that the trading price of Bitcoin is about $119,216.7, with a 24-hour rise of 1.47%. This round of pump is accompanied by a series of consecutive daily chart bullish candles, and bullish sentiment has swept across the entire encryption industry.

In the technical analysis shared on the TradingView platform, cryptocurrency analyst RLinda pointed out two possible scenarios that may occur in the coming days or weeks, depending on Bitcoin's reaction to the nearby key resistance and support levels.

Key support area breaking may trigger a deep pullback

RLinda's technical analysis first emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin setting a new historical high. Although Bitcoin seems to have entered a consolidation phase, the top has not yet been confirmed. The market structure still leans towards bullish continuation, especially considering that Bitcoin has just escaped the two-month consolidation range and is entering the value realization phase.

According to the 1-hour candlestick chart, the current trading price of Bitcoin is slightly above a support area below $117,500. If Bitcoin fails to hold this area, it may trigger a chain reaction of corrections, pushing the price down towards:

• 115,500 USD
• It may subsequently dip to 114,300 USD
• Even retracing to previous historical high of $111,800.

Beneath this, levels around $113,031 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level) and $111,960 (0.705 Fibonacci retracement level) may provide temporary support buffer. The final main bullish defense buy zone is located around $110,400, where bulls may intervene in hopes of a rebound. In short, if Bitcoin falls below the support level of $115,500, the price may drop to $110,000, where it will encounter the next strong buying support area.

Impact 125,000 USD? A strong breakthrough of key resistance is needed

On the other hand, Bitcoin still has the potential to break through $118,000 and further rise to $125,000, but this requires meeting specific conditions. The key premise for the continuation of the rise is that Bitcoin must strongly close above $118,400 and $118,900 on the daily chart. In RLinda's words, closing above these price levels on the daily chart will imply a "structural breakthrough" . This, in turn, will confirm that the market has shifted from consolidation to a new round of upward momentum.

Essentially, whether the outlook is bearish or bullish depends on Bitcoin's reaction to the key areas (such as the $116,700 support or the resistance above $118,400) before making a directional choice. However, it is worth noting that the consolidation period after last week's significant rise may last for weeks or even months, which is quite similar to the previous rising patterns in this bull market cycle.

On-chain data: Long-term holders are not yet fervent, and the bull market has not shown signs of overheating

According to Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator for long-term holders, Bitcoin's current long-term holder profit sentiment level is at 0.69. Despite Bitcoin just reaching an all-time high, this value is significantly below the "market euphoria" threshold of 0.75.

During the last bull market cycle, Bitcoin was above the 0.75 frenzy threshold for about 228 days. In contrast, this cycle has only been above that level for about 30 days so far. This indicates that long-term holders (LTH) have not yet taken profits on a large scale, the market has not reached an overheated state, and there is still potential for a rise.