Golden Ten Digest: Institutional Outlook for the Fed Interest Rate Decision - First Cut of 25bp Expected, Dot Plot Likely to be the Focus, Powell May Turn Dovish
Barclays: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected, with a total of 75 baz points cut this year, and 125 baz points cut next year. Powell may signal further interest rate cuts, but will not provide clear guidance on the timing and pace of future cuts. 2. DBS Bank: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected, with downward revisions to core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts, and upward revisions to unemployment rate forecasts. The dot plot will show a total of 75 baz points interest rate cuts this year, and 100 baz points next year. The statement will emphasize data dependence. 3. Nomura Securities: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected, and the dot plot shows a further 50 baz points interest rate cuts this year and 100 baz points next year. The US dollar may initially pump 50 points. Powell may turn dovish, emphasizing deteriorating labor market conditions and reversing the rise in the US dollar. 4. Bank of America: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected, and the US dollar may subconsciously rise. The dot plot will show a total of 75 baz points interest rate cuts this year. Recent trends in the labor market make Powell inclined not to challenge market pricing and open the door to a dovish interpretation. 5. Farm Credit: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected, with a total of 50 baz points cut this year and 150 baz points cut next year. Also, the obvious risk of an earlier interest rate cut cycle is seen, leading to the addition of a third 25 baz points interest rate cut in the 2024 forecast. 6. DBS Bank: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 baz points this week, and it will cut interest rates by 150 baz points by the end of 2025. The market's reflected interest rate cut seems to be too much, and aggressive pricing may end up disappointing and ultimately causing panic. 7. Nordea: 25 baz points interest rate cut expected for the first time, and a 50 baz points cut will send the wrong signal. The current baseline expectation is only to cut interest rates once per quarter, and a 25 baz points cut is still the most likely path in the future.
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Golden Ten Digest: Institutional Outlook for the Fed Interest Rate Decision - First Cut of 25bp Expected, Dot Plot Likely to be the Focus, Powell May Turn Dovish