Analyze EigenLayer (EIGEN) circulating supply data: How much circulation is there today after the unlocking?

Author: Azuma, Odaily Star Daily

EigenLayer's protocol token EIGEN will officially enter circulation today.

According to the official disclosure of the Eigen Foundation, the transfer restrictions of EIGEN are expected to be removed at 21:00 PST on September 30, 2024 (13:00 on October 1, Beijing time).

Due to the fact that EigenLayer has conducted two rounds of large-scale Airdrops before, and the protocol has activated the function of re-staking EIGEN Tokens before lifting the transfer restrictions, there is a certain misunderstanding in the market about the actual circulating supply of EIGEN.

To dispel these information fog, Kairos Research, an encryption analysis agency, recently conducted an analysis of the actual circulation status of EIGEN by combining EIGEN's Airdrop application rate and stake data with the help of EIGEN's Airdrop application rate and stake data. However, due to the extremely fast changes in real-time data near the unlocking date, we will calculate the circulation status of EIGEN a few hours before the opening with Kairos Research's data model in the following text. In addition, Odaily Star Daily will also sort out potential events and Nodes that may cause the expansion of EIGEN's circulation, hoping to help everyone's decision-making.

Airdrop Application Status

First of all, the currently circulating EIGEN tokens come from two rounds of Airdrop activities (Stakedrop 1, Stakedrop 2), with Stakedrop 1 originally planned to release 113 million EIGEN (6.75%) and Stakedrop 2 originally planned to release 86 million EIGEN, totaling approximately 200 million EIGEN, accounting for about 11.9% of the total initial supply of 1.67 billion tokens.

However, this data does not represent the actual circulation status, specifically because there are large amounts of unclaimed shares in both airdrops for two seasons.

Currently, the application for Stakedrop 2 is still ongoing, but the real-time application rate is only 27%, releasing 23.26 million EIGEN temporarily.

In summary, the total number of EIGEN claimed for the two seasons of Airdrop is currently about 119 million, accounting for approximately 7% of the total initial supply.

EIGEN stake status

From the calculation of the previous Part, it can be seen that the current amount of EIGEN released through Airdrop is approximately 119 million, but this is still not the actual circulating supply of EIGEN at present, because EigenLayer has activated the re-stake function of EIGEN Token early on and attracted most of the holders to re-stake.

Due to the 7-day cooldown period before unstaking, the current staked EIGEN is in a state of restricted circulation.

Dune data shows that the current number of EIGEN Tokens in stake is about 69.36 million, which means that the actual fully circulating EIGEN is only about 49.64 million, accounting for about 3% of the total supply at genesis.

Latent Variable Analysis and Monitoring

It should be emphasized that the previous analysis of the EIGEN circulation data is limited to the analysis of EIGEN shares that are currently in a fully circulating state. From a technical perspective, there are still several types of shares that can enter circulation at any time, and these shares may affect real-time circulation data at any time, so it is necessary to further monitor this.

The first potential "variable" is the Airdrop claim rate for Stakedrop 2. The EIGEN claimed in this round of Airdrop can flow directly into the market. It is recommended to monitor this data through Dune's data dashboard. There is a key time Node here, that is, the external Address claim for Node operators in Stakedrop 2 will open on October 6th, which may be a larger circulating variable.

• Odaily Note: The so-called external Address application means that EigenLayer allows Operators to use a new Address to receive the Airdrop, without directly connecting the operational main Address to the application interface.

The second type of 'variable' is the unstaking state of EIGEN staking. In fact, judging from the data of the past few days, the peak of unstaking has already come, and it is still recommended to monitor this data through Dune's dashboard.

The third type of 'variable' is EigenLayer, an incentive program that will be launched in October. The program aims to reward eligible stakeholders and operating nodes with EIGEN incentives on a weekly basis. EigenLayer officials stated that this incentive measure will implement retrospective rewards based on stake conditions since August 15, 2024. The initial rewards will be available for redemption on a weekly basis starting in October. It is estimated that approximately 6695 EIGEN tokens, equivalent to 4% of the initial supply of EIGEN tokens, will be distributed in the first year of the program.

Although the incentive plan releases a large amount of EIGEN, considering that the plan adopts a linear release mechanism based on weeks, the impact on the circulation will not be significant in the early stage.

Risk Warning

As can be seen from the previous article, it is expected that only about 49.64 million tokens will be in full circulation after EIGEN lifts the transfer restrictions this afternoon, accounting for about 3% of the total supply at the beginning. Based on the estimated price of about $4 in the current major pre-trading markets, the expected initial circulating market value is about $200 million.

Considering the fundamental situation of EigenLayer itself and the market heat, it is expected that EIGEN will usher in a more intense price game after the opening of major exchanges. Investors should be vigilant against volatility risks.

As for the next few days, multiple potential variables may affect the current circulation situation. Investors are actively monitoring real-time trends and making trading decisions cautiously.