Antaike: Global nickel industry surplus expectations narrowed, nickel prices may grind to the bottom

On December 14th, Jin10 Data reported that in the first half of 2024, nickel prices rose and then fell, as the support cost below was still present. After reaching a temporary low in late July, the overall price showed a pattern of bottom rebound and resistance to further decline, with weak momentum in both upward and downward directions. Returning to the fundamentals, there is an oversupply, and the limited improvement in downstream consumption has limited impact on price increase. Overall, nickel prices have experienced narrow fluctuations throughout the year, with Shanghai nickel reaching a high of 160,000 yuan per ton and a low of 119,000 yuan per ton, mainly fluctuating in the range of 120,000 to 140,000 yuan per ton. Looking ahead to the next year, it is expected that the upward and downward momentum of nickel prices will remain weak, with the main contradiction still on the supply side. In 2025, it is expected that the price difference between products and the price difference between domestic and international markets will further converge, with the price center shifting downward. The expected range for LME nickel is $14,500 to $18,500 per ton, and the range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 to 170,000 yuan per ton.