Raoul Pal Market Update: XRP Cycle Peak and Next BIG Crash

Crypto analyst Levi Rietveld recently shared insights from Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal in a video focused on the evolving liquidity environment and its implications for digital assets.

Rietveld emphasizes that despite XRP’s lack of major price movement in recent months, the current market structure is promising. He points to the alignment between monetary policy, liquidity metrics such as global M2, and business cycle indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing index, as signals that conditions may soon favor a shift into altcoins.

Liquidity as the Primary Driver

The video centers on Raoul Pal’s thesis that digital asset performance, including XRP and other altcoins, is primarily driven by global liquidity cycles. Pal asserts that increases in M2 money supply are correlated with Bitcoin and that altcoins tend to follow once investors start moving further out of the risk curve.

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Although Pal has previously criticized investors who buy XRP and other old altcoins, he argues that most of the returns in crypto and tech are not driven by only innovation or adoption, but by shifts in global liquidity, particularly central bank policy and credit availability.

Pal also highlights the ISM manufacturing index as a critical forward indicator. Historically, a rising ISM, particularly above the 50 mark, signals an improving business environment and growing investor risk appetite. This metric can help forecast capital flows into speculative assets, such as XRP.

XRP’s Positive Technical Setups

Building on Pal’s macro view, Rietveld explains that XRP’s chart is showing a constructive, though patient, setup. The asset has largely traded sideways, but remains in what he describes as a “phenomenally better” position compared to many other altcoins.

Another analyst recently described XRP’s chart as “beautifully painted”, and this combination of low volatility, a favorable macro backdrop, and improving liquidity metrics could lead to a future breakout.

Pal adds that Bitcoin and Ethereum are also consolidating, which is typically a precursor to broader altcoin strength. XRP is already outperforming Ethereum, and this context reinforces the idea that the asset may not need significant changes in project-specific fundamentals to perform well. Instead, its trajectory could largely depend on the global business cycle and investor risk preferences.

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