Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Futures Premium Rate Reaches 8%, Extreme Bullish Signals Suggest Rebound to $5000?

The price of Ethereum (ETH) briefly touched $3,940 at the start of this week before falling by 4%. This decline is consistent with the overall retracement trend in the crypto assets market, indicating that it was not triggered by factors unique to ETH. Although some traders may feel panic, the prices of ETH derivatives remain stable, suggesting that ETH still has the potential to rise to $5,000. Amid global macroeconomic uncertainty, Ethereum's market performance and the continued inflow of institutional funds have become the focus of market attention.

ETH Traders Cautiously Predict: Futures Premium Rate Reveals Bullish Signal

The global market is still following the negotiations on U.S. import tariffs, with analysts warning that if an agreement is not reached, the risk of economic recession may rise significantly. Although China reached a trade agreement with Europe on Monday, August 12 is the deadline for China to finalize the deal. Therefore, traders seem to prefer holding cash or allocating to short-term bonds.

(Source: Trading View)

To assess whether trader sentiment has changed after the ETH pullback, one can look at the monthly futures premium. In a neutral situation, the annualized premium of this indicator typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Currently, the ETH futures premium rate is 8%, the highest level in nearly five months. Interestingly, despite the ETH price rising 55% over the past three weeks, the premium rate remains the same. From a bullish perspective, this suggests that if ETH confidently breaks through $4,000, traders still have room to leverage.

(Source: Laevitas)

To determine whether this trend is limited to the futures market, the options skew indicator should be considered. When large traders and market makers anticipate downside risk, the 30-day Delta skew will be above the neutral line of 6%. Currently, the skew of Ethereum options reflects a relatively balanced market expectation for price trends, which is in stark contrast to the optimistic sentiment of 8% a week ago. After ETH reached its highest level in seven months, professionals have not taken defensive measures, indicating that the confidence of whales and market makers remains strong.

(Source: Laevitas)

Ethereum Spot ETF Capital Inflow: Key Driving Force Behind ETH's Strong Momentum

The most important driving force behind ETH's recent strength is the inflow of the spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF). This has allowed ETH to stand out among many competing assets. From July 11 to July 25, the net inflow of ETH ETF was 4.23 billion USD, and the total assets under management of ETH ETFs listed in the United States reached 17.24 billion USD.

According to data from StrategicEthReserve, over 40 companies hold at least 1,000 ETH in corporate reserves, which is equivalent to approximately 3.8 million USD at current prices. Notably, companies including Bitmine Immersion Tech, SharpLink Gaming, and The Ether Machine collectively hold ETH worth 8.84 billion USD.

Objectively speaking, besides the US-listed company Strategy led by Michael Saylor and the Bitcoin mining group, only eight companies hold Bitcoin worth over $1 billion on their balance sheets. Although they entered this trend relatively late, companies focusing on adopting Ether as a key strategy are gaining attention at an astonishing rate. This indicates that institutional interest in Ethereum is rapidly growing, and they see it as an important asset allocation option.

Macroeconomic and Technical Analysis: Possibility of Short-term Breakthrough of 5000 USD

From the perspective of the derivatives market, ETH traders remain cautiously optimistic. As long as institutional demand remains stable, breaking through $5,000 in the short term is still realistic. Despite the uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, the intrinsic value of Ethereum and the continued development of its ecosystem, along with strong inflows of institutional funds, provide solid support for its price.

However, investors still need to closely follow the progress of macroeconomic negotiations and the changes in technical indicators. The volatility of the crypto assets market remains high, and any sudden events may affect the price trend.

The futures premium rate of Ethereum and the continuous inflow of institutional funds together paint a bullish picture. Although there may be pressure for a market correction in the short term, Ethereum, as the second-largest asset in the crypto assets market, is increasingly solidifying its position in the minds of institutional investors. With the popularity of spot ETH ETFs and more companies incorporating Ethereum into their balance sheets, ETH is expected to break through the $5,000 barrier in the near future, opening a new milestone.