Bitcoin Future and Macroeconomic Trends Outlook

Recently, an online discussion themed "Outlook on the Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends" took place on social media. This discussion invited several industry veterans, including Lao Bai, a partner at ABCDE Investment Research, Suji Yan, the founder of Mask Network, Ming Dao, the founder of dForce, and Jeffrey Hu, the head of investment research at HashKey Capital, to jointly explore the future development trends of the crypto market.

Guest Introduction

Old Bai: As a research and investment partner of ABCDE, I am currently focused on the primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, I continue to focus on project research and investment, especially in AI-related projects. In the secondary market, I mainly pay attention to new types of DeFi, compliant DeFi, and AI agent-related projects.

Suji Yan: The founder of Mask Network, also operating the Bonfire Union fund. Currently focusing on the development of non-financial application areas, including AI applications, social products, and the gaming sector.

Ming Dao: Currently focusing on the integration of DeFi and AI agents, as well as developing new products. Particularly concerned with how to bring the economic models and liquidity management of DeFi into the field of AI agents.

2024 Market Review

The year 2024 is particularly important for the entire Bitcoin and crypto market. Several key phrases include Bitcoin halving, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF, and Trump's election victory, all of which have driven the market up, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark. At the same time, more institutions, companies, and even countries are beginning to participate in the crypto space.

Lao Bai believes that the birth of GOAT is the most shocking event, as it has overturned the industry's understanding of the AI track. He points out that the first citizen of the blockchain should be an AI agent, not humans.

Suji Yan reviewed his predictions from the end of 2020, believing that the prophecies regarding the relationship between politics, geopolitics, and Bitcoin have already come true. He boldly predicted that in 40 to 60 years, AI may gain human rights, and this process will be closely related to Bitcoin.

Mingdao stated that the direct involvement of the Trump family in DeFi projects is completely unexpected. He believes that this shift could break the regularity of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle.

Retail Participation After Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000

Regarding the question of whether retail investors will find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks $100,000, Lao Bai believes it depends on how "participation" is defined. If one expects to achieve hundredfold or thousandfold returns like in previous bull and bear markets and easily cross classes, it will indeed be more difficult to achieve after $100,000. However, if Bitcoin is viewed as an investment and financial tool similar to U.S. stocks and gold, it remains one of the best choices.

Suji Yan pointed out that any fund claiming to have a high yield multiplier has lower liquidity than Bitcoin. He believes that for ordinary investors, the key is to remain patient and focus on areas they truly understand.

Mingdao suggests that retail investors can consider allocating 50% to Bitcoin and the other 50% to invest in some low market cap secondary market projects or primary market projects.

Jeffrey Hu emphasized that it cannot be simply assumed that retail investors find it difficult to participate in the market. The key is to choose the right way to participate and find a balance between risk and return.

Institutional Investment Strategies

Mingdao explained MicroStrategy's strategy as a "company that sells Bitcoin volatility," and how BlackRock continuously buys through ETFs. He expects that MicroStrategy may stop increasing its holdings when it holds 7-8% of Bitcoin, as excessive concentration could affect Bitcoin's decentralized attributes.

Lao Bai believes that as long as Bitcoin does not experience a significant crash, there will inevitably be more companies following the example of MicroStrategy. He pointed out that MicroStrategy has entered the NASDAQ 100, which provides institutional and retail investors with an indirect way to hold Bitcoin.

Suji Yan expects that more small institutions similar to MicroStrategy will emerge in the future, especially in different countries. He believes that many non-US dollar countries are restricting the purchase of US Bitcoin ETFs, which may give rise to local versions of MicroStrategy.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future

Jeffrey Hu proposed that the Bitcoin ecosystem itself may not necessarily be Bitcoin, as many projects issue their own tokens. He believes that the earnings from BTC-Fi mainly come from staking rewards, transaction fees, and lending profits.

Mingdao pointed out that the concept of "Bitcoin Layer 2" is somewhat forced and falls into the error of Ethereum empiricism. He is skeptical about the long-term sustainability of BTC-Fi.

Lao Bai stated that the Bitcoin Layer 2 is currently in a semi-falsifiable state. He is more optimistic about the exploration of native Bitcoin Layer 2.

Suji Yan believes that it is necessary to distinguish between the Bitcoin ecosystem, BTC-Fi, and Bitcoin Layer 2. He suggests that the Bitcoin ecosystem should focus on those areas that are particularly important and require absolute neutrality.

Bitcoin During Trump's Tenure

Jeffrey Hu pointed out that it is difficult to determine whether Trump's rise to power is truly a positive thing, as there may be differences between the promises made during the campaign and the actual policies implemented after taking office.

Mingdao expects a high probability of passing cryptocurrency-friendly legislation during Trump's term.

Suji Yan believes that the attributes of Bitcoin and cypherpunk are more aligned with the ideals of the Republican Party. He reminds us to view policy benefits rationally and to pay attention to the actual implementation methods and pace of the policies.

2025 Prediction

Mingdao is relatively optimistic about Ethereum, believing it may break through historical highs in the future. He expects the bull-bear transition may not occur until the second quarter or later.

Suji Yan observed that several significant structural changes may occur in 2025, including traditional financial institutions becoming more deeply involved in the crypto market, large tech companies potentially incorporating cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets, the Layer 2 ecosystem possibly experiencing explosive growth, and the integration of DeFi with traditional finance accelerating.

He suggests that entrepreneurs should seize this opportunity, and ordinary investors should not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get shaken out of the market. Overall, the market is expected to perform well in the long term, but the way the positive news materializes may differ from expectations.