Crypto Market Macro Research Report: Policy Easing and Industry Breakthrough, Bitcoin Breaks Through the $100,000 Barrier

I. Macroeconomic Background: Policy Resonance and Market Sentiment Shift

In May 2025, the People's Bank of China implemented a "double reduction" policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. This policy not only affects traditional financial markets but also brings opportunities for the crypto market and Web3 ecosystem. At the same time, expectations for high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States are improving, further boosting global risk appetite.

1.1 The improvement of economic and trade relations stimulates market sentiment.

The economic and trade relationship between China and the United States has always been a focal point of the global market. With China implementing the "dual reduction" policy, market expectations for the warming of China-U.S. economic and trade relations have significantly increased, and the prices of risk assets have generally risen, especially in the crypto market. This conveys the signal that the monetary policy easing cycle has arrived, and economic growth will receive new support. Against this backdrop, the enthusiasm for investing in traditional and crypto assets is high. The positive expectations for high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the U.S. further enhance market optimism. These policy signals have reshaped investor sentiment, bringing positive effects to the crypto market. Risk assets like Bitcoin have risen, reflecting a shift in market sentiment.

1.2 "Dual Reduction" Policy and Global Liquidity

China's "dual reduction" policy has a global impact. By lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, the central bank injects ample liquidity into the market, releasing 1 trillion yuan in funds. This easing policy not only benefits the Chinese economy but may also trigger changes in global capital flows. Against the backdrop of high inflation and unemployment risks in the U.S. economy, China's policies appear more attractive. The global capital market, especially the Asian market, has responded positively to this. As liquidity is significantly released, global capital is more actively seeking new investment channels. In this context, traditional and crypto market investors have seen a significant increase in demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Bitcoin, as "digital gold," gains prominence in the global monetary easing environment, becoming an important tool to combat inflation and currency depreciation.

1.3 Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

As global liquidity increases significantly, the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is also under close scrutiny. Recent economic data shows that the U.S. economy is steadily expanding, but the dual pressures of high inflation and high unemployment pose greater challenges for monetary policy. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate policy in the short term to avoid overstimulating the economy. This has led to a stronger dollar, affecting global capital flows, especially in the crypto market. Despite the dollar's strength, demand for crypto assets has not significantly declined; instead, there has been a resurgence of interest in "digital gold" as a safe-haven asset. Investors, amid policy uncertainty, are seeking stable value storage tools, which has increased demand for Bitcoin.

1.4 Market Sentiment Shift and Investment Strategies

Overall, policy resonance and the shift in market sentiment will profoundly impact the global capital markets, especially the crypto market. With China implementing easing policies and the recovery of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, global risk appetite has significantly increased, and investor sentiment has turned positive, particularly with a surge in demand for risk assets in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's price is approaching the historical high of $100,000, indicating a high level of market recognition. However, investors still need to be cautious in addressing potential risks. As global monetary policies change, the uncertainty of the dollar's movement and the Federal Reserve's policies may bring volatility to the crypto market. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a flexible strategy, adopting a "core + satellite" investment portfolio, positioning Bitcoin as digital gold for foundational allocation, and paying attention to innovative Web3 projects in areas such as cross-border payments and digital identity verification.

2. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Price Approaching $100,000

In 2025, Bitcoin is showing a strong upward trend, with prices approaching the historical psychological threshold of 100,000 USD multiple times, making it one of the most eye-catching assets of the year. The forces driving this surge are complex and diverse, involving not only the resonance of macro policy backgrounds but also the structural evolution within the encryption industry, as well as a two-way game of emotions and expectations. As the traditional financial system faces uncertainty, Bitcoin re-establishes itself at the center of global capital attention. Behind the price curve is not only the concentrated release of risk-averse demand but also the reality of institutional recognition, influx of institutions, and valuation reconstruction.

Looking back at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the price movement of Bitcoin significantly benefited from the easing policies of major global economies. The "synchronized dovish shift" in monetary and fiscal policies of China and the United States injected unprecedented liquidity into the market. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, as a scarce, non-sovereign, and strongly consensus-driven digital asset, once again took on a dual role in the eyes of global investors as both a "safe-haven currency + growth asset." While it hedges against the devaluation of fiat currency, it also assumes the alternative function of "digital gold" in the structural cracks of the monetary system.

The biggest difference from past bull market cycles is that during this round of price increase, institutional investors have become the dominant force. Mainstream asset management institutions are laying out Bitcoin spot ETFs, pushing it towards a path of institutionalized allocation. Financial products related to crypto assets are becoming increasingly abundant in places like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Europe, with improved regulatory transparency, allowing Bitcoin to enter more traditional capital pools in a compliant manner. The addition of this institutional-level funding not only enhances the depth and stability of the Bitcoin market but also significantly reduces its past "purely emotion-driven" volatility structure, making the upward trend more structured and persistent.

At the same time, the logic of scarcity on the supply side continues to amplify Bitcoin's value anchoring ability. The fourth halving event in April 2024 will reduce the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 coins, significantly compressing new supply. As the inflation rate of the Bitcoin blockchain has fallen to less than 1% and is gradually approaching the annual supply growth rate of gold, its "deflationary currency" narrative is further strengthened. On the demand side, under the multiple pulls of ETF listings, central bank purchases, sovereign fund allocations, and a global rise in risk aversion, there is exponential growth. The asymmetry in the supply-demand structure constitutes a fundamental support for the medium to long-term rise in Bitcoin prices.

It is worth noting that the current process of Bitcoin approaching 100,000 dollars is also accompanied by intense emotional fluctuations and technical adjustments. Whale accounts are frequently engaged in concentrated trading behavior in the market, especially near key integer levels, along with high-frequency algorithms and large arbitrage plays. The market experiences sharp pulls in a short time, and volatility soars. Some old funds take this opportunity to distribute, compounded by retail investors' "fear of heights" sentiment, leading to a phase adjustment. On-chain indicators show that long-term holders are gradually reducing selling pressure, while new entrants are concentrated at high price levels. The market structure is transitioning from early belief-based users to a handover period with mainstream incremental users.

In terms of market sentiment, the media widely publicizes the historical significance of Bitcoin nearing $100,000, creating a strong "FOMO effect" that attracts a large number of retail investors for short-term trading. However, this media-driven enthusiasm also brings about typical "bubble expectations," where some short-term funds exhibit excessive speculative behavior, especially with high-leverage users concentrating their trades, which can easily trigger a cascading liquidation at critical price points. Therefore, although the long-term logic supports Bitcoin's price breaking new highs, there remains the possibility of severe fluctuations in the short term, as the market enters a stage of game between enthusiasm and risk.

Overall, Bitcoin is approaching $100,000, which is both the result of technical and policy resonance, and represents its asset positioning leap in the global capital system. Under the macro framework of de-dollarization, the resurgence of global risk aversion, and institutional capital entering the market, Bitcoin is no longer just a "speculative asset" but a strategic asset in a new round of global wealth redistribution. Although there are still adjustment risks in the short term, from a medium to long-term perspective, this round of increase is not a flash in the pan, but the starting point of a new consensus cycle. Investors need to find a balance between enthusiasm and calm, understanding that Bitcoin is not just a price, but a resonance of belief, systems, and the era.

3. Web3 Ecosystem Development: Policy and Technology Dual Drive

With the easing of macro policies and continuous breakthroughs in key technologies, the Web3 ecosystem is entering a new round of development cycle. It is no longer just a speculative tool surrounding crypto assets, but is gradually evolving into the underlying infrastructure for global digital governance, cross-border collaboration, and the value internet. In this process, the three forces of policy guidance, technological innovation, and application expansion are superimposing on each other, forming the main axis that drives Web3 from concept to large-scale implementation.

1. Policy Support

Since 2025, the United States has been experiencing a key shift in its policy attitude towards cryptocurrencies and the Web3 field, moving from "regulatory suppression" to "strategic acceptance", especially as Bitcoin and core Web3 technologies are gradually being incorporated into the long-term considerations of national financial and technological development. The most representative signal is New Hampshire's formal passage of the "Bitcoin Reserve Act" in May 2025. This act requires the state's treasury to hold a portion of its state government financial reserves, initially set at 5%, in Bitcoin over the next 24 months, and supports the inclusion of Bitcoin into the public accounting system. Although this legislative initiative comes from local government, it has far-reaching implications.

Firstly, it marks that Bitcoin is no longer just a "risky asset" in certain jurisdictions, but is viewed as "digital gold" with long-term storage value capability, playing a functional role in combating inflation and enhancing fiscal independence. This provides policymakers, including those in other states, with a "pilot template," which may trigger a trend of "local government BTCization," injecting long-term institutional funding sources into the Web3 ecosystem. Secondly, the passage of this bill also enhances policy certainty around Bitcoin and Web3 technology, alleviating the uncertain risks previously caused by regulatory conflicts. For example, incentivized by this bill, the New Hampshire Treasury has signed memorandums of understanding with two local digital asset custodians, clearly stating that it will explore on-chain transparency and public ledger integration methods, providing a practical blueprint for DAO-style financial systems.

In a broader sense, multiple state governments in the United States are currently in the early stages of "policy competition". In addition to New Hampshire, crypto-friendly states such as Texas and Wyoming are also advancing experimental legislation regarding the compliance of crypto mining, on-chain finance, and smart contracts within their states. At the federal level, the "Financial Innovation and Technology Future Act" (FIT21) is being promoted, which proposes to define mainstream digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as "non-securities commodities" and pushes for the establishment of a unified regulatory framework to further clarify core issues such as asset issuance, exchange registration, and stablecoin auditing. These dynamics strengthen the long-term institutional confidence of the US market in the Web3 ecosystem and provide clear policy anchors for enterprises and capital to enter.

From an international perspective, the shift in the United States also has an "spillover effect". As a global center of capital and technology, any proactive legislation in the U.S. could lead to "policy follow" by other countries or regional markets. For example, recently, the financial regulatory authorities in the UK, South Korea, and Japan have begun to reevaluate the compliance mechanisms for stablecoins, or accelerate the promotion of the opening of Web3 "regulatory sandboxes", thus driving the flow of Web3 capital and ecological collaboration globally.

( 2. Technical Progress

The maturity of technology is a key prerequisite for Web3 to transition from "narrative economy" to "practical deployment". From 2024 to now, modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proof ) ZKP ### and other infrastructure technologies have entered the practical stage, significantly enhancing the performance, composability, and privacy protection capabilities of the Web3 network. The design concept of modular blockchain separates execution, settlement, and data availability, allowing developers to choose the optimal combination based on business needs. For instance, some projects provide flexible underlying resource scheduling capabilities, offering "on-demand customization" infrastructure for on-chain applications. The explosive progress of zero-knowledge proof technology endows Web3 with the dual capabilities of "computation + privacy". ZK-rollup, as the core solution of Ethereum Layer 2, has entered the large-scale deployment stage, while frontier cross-disciplinary fields like ZKML ( zero-knowledge machine learning ) are also beginning to show great potential in on-chain model verification and off-chain data compliance calls.

In addition, around the integration of AI and Web3, MCP(Model Context