2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Possible Scenarios and Eleven Major Predictions

Since 2024, this round of bull market cycle has gone through several important stages: On January 10, the Bitcoin ETF was launched, Bitcoin reached a historical high and led the altcoins to rise, entering the volatility period in the second and third quarters of 2024, Bitcoin broke through 50,000 and 60,000 dollars, and is currently hovering around 90,000 dollars.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round was when Bitcoin approached $69,000 but failed to break through, and the next round may occur when Bitcoin hits $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market activity is expected to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, likely happening in the first quarter of 2025. However, the next few months may also see a repeat of the situation in the second and third quarters of 2024. Here are four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together

In 2025, the overall market will rise, with Bitcoin continuing to push higher, driving all tokens to perform well, repeating the trend of the past two months. ( probability of occurrence 30-40% )

Strategy: Buy the dips of outperforming altcoins.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, some altcoins rise

Similar to the trend in 2024, there will be volatility and upward movement in the coming months, but overall outlook is more bullish. ( probability of occurrence 50-60%)

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential targets.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall

( occurrence probability 20-30% )

Strategy: Reduce or liquidate long-term underperforming altcoins.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins experience a widespread decline

The overall market is seeing a top with a probability of 10-20% (.

Due to favorable macro conditions, the new round of Bitcoin historical highs may not take as long to break through as it did in 2024. Last summer, when the ETF was just launched, traditional financial institutions were still struggling to promote Bitcoin to their clients. More importantly, there was widespread skepticism about the significance of Bitcoin.

Now that the new regime has come to power, discussions about strategic Bitcoin reserves are underway. Although the likelihood of actually establishing reserves is low, the reputation of Bitcoin has changed.

The market narrative is important. The new regime has brought renewed attention to the digital asset space, and now high-level officials frequently talk about Bitcoin, making it much easier to persuade people to buy.

This regime change is very crucial. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to maintain a favorable trend in 2025. The situation with altcoins is similar, but slightly different.

Total 3) The total market value of all altcoins ( reached a new high in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2021, and then peaked in the fourth quarter. It may follow a similar pattern ) The differences between scenario one and two mentioned above are not significant (.

The key lies in positioning and timing. While I am optimistic about 2025, I am not sure how long it will take. Although the rise in 2025 may start earlier than in 2024, altcoins could still experience significant declines during periods lacking catalysts.

As long as the cycle has not ended, we should remain optimistic about Bitcoin and altcoins. It is unlikely that a situation similar to the summer of 2024 will occur again in 2025, although we may experience a similar stable period as now, but prices will still remain at a good level.

The situation on-chain is different; during a downturn, it is easy to see a drop of 70%. It is expected that altcoins have not yet reached their peak, as it is hard to imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise when altcoins are "dying," and we also do not see Bitcoin reaching its peak at this time.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin rises, with an increase exceeding 2024.
• The overall rise of altcoins, but there will be a pullback, with less intensity than in 2024.

![Year-End Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for the 2025 Market Trends])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f884553a5e863e9a4ac8e3416c62f400.webp(

) risk

Cycle top

We are currently far from the peak of the cycle, but continuous reassessment is necessary. The peak of the cycle is not a specific "event", but a range that gradually approaches over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan Risks

After the new president takes office, the market will closely monitor his words and actions. Although there are positive factors for Bitcoin, completely ignoring the reserve plan would be quite a pessimistic signal. The more likely scenario is that the reserve plan fails to be implemented or is delayed.

In the latter case: as long as it is favorable for Bitcoin, it may initially appear bearish, but ultimately it is still bullish.

In summary: Bullish signal = the cycle continues. Bearish signal = need to adjust strategy. The cycle may continue, but the opportunity is smaller.

Supply Risk

The summer of 2024 experienced a crazy macro environment, with the stock market repeatedly hitting new highs. However, due to multiple large supply sources ###, such as a certain trading platform ( continuously selling off, the market did not benefit from it.

Supply risks can never be completely eliminated. There are always some entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin. This requires close attention, but if everything goes smoothly, these events present good opportunities for buying at low prices.

Macroeconomic Risk

The expected rate cut is limited. Although not very optimistic, as long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Similarly, bullish signals indicate that the cycle will continue. Unless there are interest rate hikes or no cuts, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.

The bearish signal is that inflation is rising again, which may force the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

) Token Recommendation

1. AI

There have already been several waves of market movements. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Simply buying and holding may not yield good results. Some early tokens have dropped by 60% from their peak and may continue to perform poorly.

Preferred: Application Technology / Collective Intelligence / Gaming / Consumer-facing AI

ALCH### game development (, Griffain ) wallet management agency (, Digimon, Ai16z, etc. are the top choices.

2. DeFi

DeFi will continue to be an important narrative, but the difficulty of investing is high, as there are not many tokens that can benefit, and even if they do benefit, the price increase may be limited.

In terms of risk and return, DeFi is not the first choice.

Preferred: AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL

Second choice: stablecoins/payment-related tokens

3. L1

L1 may make a comeback. Hype is clearly evident. L1 itself has been overlooked by the market and is one of the areas that few pay attention to but contains huge opportunities ) as Hype grows tenfold (.

Preferred: SUI/Hype

Secondary Selection: Abstract

4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens

NFT tokens are worth paying attention to. PENGU is slowly recovering, and some well-known NFT projects are also launching tokens. It is expected that NFTs themselves will not revitalize, but their tokens may make a comeback. Additionally, it is also interesting to look for upcoming token releases from intriguing game projects.

Preferred: Pengu/Anime)Azuki(/Spellborne/Treeverse

Secondary choice: Prime/Off the grid) if issuing token (/Overworld

5. Other Narratives

• Data Token: Kaito/Arkm
• Meme:PEPE
• DePIN:PEAQ/HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX

) Predictions for November 2025

1. DePIN will be implemented by a company in some way, possibly through acquisition.
2. A certain trading platform will lose market share of the largest exchange, but the main competitors are not Hyperliquid, but Bybit/OKX.
3. With the advancement of VR technology, metaverse tokens will be rejuvenated.
4. ICOs will rise again.
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. Sui will reach a double-digit minimum of 10 dollars ###.
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, giving rise to more token staking yield products and yield aggregators.
8. A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships and provide rewards.
9. Bitcoin reached $200,000.
10. More CEOs/founders of L1 projects have left.
11. Base lost in competition with other L1s, and another L1 took over. Solana continues to maintain its advantage.