The U.S. tariff policy affects the crypto market, Bitcoin fluctuates while SOL is favored.

Crypto market weekly report: Tariff policies affect the market, SOL favored by payment giants.

1. Macroeconomic Environment Analysis

Recently, the liquidity of the currency has improved. The tariff policy proposed by Trump and the uncertainties during its implementation have significantly shaken the market's confidence in the U.S. economy, and this impact is expected to persist over the next three months. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are showing a downward trend, while the U.S. stock market has experienced extreme volatility. It is noteworthy that historically, significant rises in the U.S. stock market often occur in the mid-term of a bear market. The crypto market closely follows the U.S. stock market and has also experienced severe fluctuations.

2. Market Overview

This week, Bitcoin experienced an oversold rebound, but many small-cap tokens fell sharply due to being delisted by exchanges. The market overall lacks a clear hot direction.

The top five tokens with the largest increase are XCN (110%), FARTCOIN (100%), GAS (60%), LAYER (40%), and UXLINK (30%). The largest decreases include BERA (40%), EOS (20%), MEW (20%), W (20%), and NEAR (20%).

It is worth noting:

1. BERA, as a representative of the DeFi public chain, has fallen below its long-term support level, with a decrease of 300 million US dollars in its on-chain stablecoins over the past week.
2. FARTCOIN is a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem that has risen against the trend in the overall market downturn.
3. BABY is the staking representative in the Bitcoin ecosystem. After its listing, its market value returned to 800 million USD, but the re-staking concept seems to have been questioned by the market.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market has come to a standstill. Market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and the total market value of altcoins has dropped from 1 trillion dollars at the beginning of the year to around 600 billion dollars. This decline has affected a wide range of sectors, with almost all segments experiencing varying degrees of depreciation.

Institutional funds have seen a slight net outflow, and global market sentiment is trending towards panic. The market capitalization of stablecoins has also decreased, reflecting investors' risk-averse sentiment.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score is currently 1.6, close to the bottom range, indicating that the market as a whole is in a state of loss. When this indicator is greater than 6, it usually means the market is at the top range; when it is less than 2, it may be in the bottom range.

4. Futures Market Analysis

The funding rate for this period remains at a low level, approximately 0.00%. Generally, a rate between 0.05-0.1% indicates a higher long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1-0% indicates a higher short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

The open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to decline, indicating that the main funds in the market are withdrawing. The long-short ratio is 1.9, showing that market sentiment is leaning towards greed. Generally speaking, a long-short ratio below 0.7 indicates market panic, while above 2.0 indicates market greed. However, it is important to note that the long-short ratio data is highly volatile, which reduces its reference value.

5. Spot Market Trends

This week, the price of Bitcoin has experienced dramatic fluctuations, while the altcoin market lacks new investment narratives. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has continued to put pressure on global financial markets. This weakness has spread to most asset classes, and the crypto market, as an emerging asset class, is similarly trapped in a bear market.