XRP breaks out thanks to ETF, legal issues; Bitcoin maintains 95K USD

* ProShares XRP ETF with leverage will not launch on April 30 as previously scheduled.

• Market data warns of a potential drop to 2 USD or lower in May.

Ripple's XRP ETF has become a hot topic, and the launch of ProShares' futures-based XRP ETF has added to the attention.

Although many people are looking forward to this event on April 30, Bloomberg's ETF analyst, James Seyffart, clarified that it will launch soon, but not this month.

"We have confirmed that this is not correct. We do not have a specific launch date yet, but we believe it will launch soon, possibly in the short or medium term."

If listed, ProShares products will join Teucrium in the leveraged XRP ETF market in the United States.

With the XRP CME futures contract also scheduled to launch in May, the likelihood of the spot XRP ETF being approved in the United States has increased by 10% over the past week.

The Polymarket prediction page offers a 78% chance of approval by the end of 2025.

XRP ETF — Is it bad for traders?

Although the ETF outlook is positive, analysis from Aphractal is cautious, comparing the situation to the approval of the BTC ETF. There has been a significant increase in unliquidated long positions around the 2 USD level and below.

Aphractal points out that a similar situation with the BTC ETF caused the BTC price to drop by 11K USD before recovering.

Source: Aphractal

For those who are not familiar, such large liquidity, whether from long or short positions, tends to attract prices. Therefore, asset prices may fall to these levels during price increases based on liquidity.

Simply put, this company predicts that the price could drop to 2 USD or lower when any XRP ETF is launched soon. Similar predictions can also be seen in the options market.

According to Deribit, the largest trading volume for XRP is the put option ( speculative short ) with a target of 1.4 USD on May 30.

! XRP ETF Source: Deribit

The second trading tool is the call option (speculating on an increase) at a price of 2,275 USD for April 30. In other words, large investors are hedging against the possibility of a drop below 2 USD next month.

On the price chart, XRP is holding the short-term support level of 2.1 USD but has not yet surpassed the downward trend. However, the price is currently above the 200DMA (Daily Moving Average).

Source: XRP/USDT, TradingView

This means that the buyers are in a good position, but they could gain an advantage by pushing the price above 2.4 USD.

Any sharp decline could stop at $2.1, $200DMA, or $1.4 (một key convergence zone in 11).

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