Data Analysis: Decrease in Job Openings in the US May Indicate Bitcoin Price Pump

Author: Marcel Pechman

Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow

Today's JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report shows a sharp decline in job openings in the U.S., but this may not be bad news for Bitcoin.

Key Information:

Weak labor and consumer data typically heralds a rise in Bitcoin, prompting some analysts to predict that economic stimulus plans may be introduced in the future.

The job vacancies in March fell to 7.2 million, below the expected 7.5 million, while the consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level since January 2021.

If past patterns continue, Bitcoin could rise in mid-July and is expected to reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have always been seen as a significant influence on cryptocurrency prices. Typically, when investors are concerned about weak employment and consumer data, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies perform poorly.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor's JOLTS report released on April 29, job openings in March were near their lowest level in four years. U.S. employers posted 7.2 million job openings in March, below economists' forecasts of 7.5 million. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.

U.S. Consumer Confidence (left) and Total U.S. Non-Farm Job Openings (right)

Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

The worsening situation has increased the possibility of the central bank implementing economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact on the cryptocurrency market uncertain. Typically, additional liquidity would encourage investment in risk assets such as Bitcoin, as more funds flow into the economy.

Future expectations are more important than the current weak economic data.

The last time the U.S. experienced a decline in job openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the following three months, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $53,000 and $66,000. Then, starting in mid-October, there was a 60% increase, pushing the price of Bitcoin to more than $100,000. The end result was positive, but it took more than 105 days for this effect to manifest itself in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin/USD, logarithmic scale

Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Although these conditions may initially seem concerning, weak labor and consumer sentiment are often lagging indicators. Financial markets and companies make decisions based on expectations for future economic growth, not just past data. Moreover, improvements in crypto investor sentiment often follow confirmations of improved macroeconomic conditions. This explains why a 105-day lag is not uncommon.

Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, where job market data and consumer confidence both declined. The next four months were tough, with Bitcoin's price dropping by 18% to $25,000. However, the price recovered to $30,500 after 115 days at the end of October. The following two months were very positive, with Bitcoin increasing by 45% to $43,900.

Bitcoin/USD in 2020, using a logarithmic scale

Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The last significant blow to the labor market and consumer confidence over the past eight years occurred between February 2020 and May 2020, right after the implementation of lockdown measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, Bitcoin briefly fell below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, the market expects a long consolidation period before investors regain confidence in the crypto market.

Can Bitcoin reach $140,000 before October?

Looking back at macroeconomic data, from May 2020 to September 2020, Bitcoin was not significantly affected, with its price rising from $8,900 to $10,600, an increase of 20%. However, in the next 60 days, Bitcoin experienced an impressive gain of 85%, reaching $19,700. This was the third time that weak labor and consumer sentiment data seemed to herald a rise in Bitcoin prices.

Although the time span from the lowest point of economic conditions to the rise of Bitcoin is between 105 to 130 days, the results are evident in all three cases. Therefore, if U.S. job vacancies and consumer confidence improve starting in April 2025, the price of Bitcoin may begin to rise in mid-July. If history repeats itself, this could mean that by October 2025, the minimum target price for Bitcoin is $140,000, but further positive macroeconomic data is still needed to confirm this expectation.