Ethereum leads the rise, is the "alt season" coming back? What do analysts think?

Ethereum's recent strong rise has sparked expectations and heated debates in the market about the "alts season."

Written by: Editor Jr., BlockTempo

Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown strong pump momentum surpassing Bitcoin. This morning (May 11), after Trump announced significant progress in trade talks with China, ETH once broke through $2,600, reigniting short-term optimism in the market. Meanwhile, the altcoin season index compiled by CMC has recently bottomed out and risen above 40, reaching a near 90-day high. This has sparked heated discussions on whether "Altcoin Season" is about to arrive.

Divergence in Analysts' Opinions

Some market observers hold an optimistic view on the future of alts. Analyst Mister Crypto predicts that in the next three to six months, the market may usher in a "life-changing" trend, with daily returns of 40% on alts becoming the norm.

Technical trader Moustache also pointed out that alts often experience explosive growth after repeated accumulation, believing that the current market structure is similar to that of 2016 and 2020, claiming that "the altcoin season of 2025 has officially begun."

Cautious Viewpoint: Market Enthusiasm Coexists with Challenges

However, not all analysts are optimistic. Analyst 2Lambroz acknowledges that the altcoin season may be approaching, but points out that the market "people want to chase the rise, but lack faith in a strong narrative." He observes that, unlike in 2021, there are currently no large numbers of retail investors entering the market, and trader capital rotation is faster, lacking the motivation for long-term holding.

Commentator Rekt Fencer questioned the optimistic sentiment, pointing out that most alts have dropped by 90% since December last year, and the recent rebound of about 10% is easily over-interpreted, sarcastically stating: "Is this the altcoin season we've been waiting for?" He believes that Bitcoin's dominance still exceeds the key threshold of 54%, and institutional preference for Bitcoin may continue to influence the flow of funds. This market cycle may be more fragmented, with significant differences in the performance of different sectors of alts.

Key Indicators and Macroeconomic Variables

In addition to technical analysis, the future direction of the alts market is also influenced by multiple key factors. Firstly, the price of Bitcoin and its market dominance are crucial. A rise in Bitcoin's price boosts market sentiment, but changes in its dominance remain key to judging the altcoin season. Secondly, overall market sentiment and risk appetite are also important factors. Optimistic developments in the global macroeconomy and geopolitics, such as progress in US-China trade negotiations and easing tensions between India and Pakistan, may drive funds into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and meme coins.

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, stated that the cryptocurrency market is rebounding on the wave of global optimism, with Ethereum's strong rebound driving the altcoin market. However, whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to alts, and the level of retail participation remain key points of observation.