Bitcoin price surge hides concerns, analysts: three indicators weaken exposing insufficient capital inflow.

The price of Bitcoin has been steadily rising since April, but the inflow of funds behind it has not grown in sync. Experts warn that this situation of 'price-volume divergence' may pose risks for the bull run. Crypto Assets analyst Murphy recently revealed the true capital dynamics behind the surface prosperity of the market through in-depth data interpretation, reminding investors not to overlook potential turning points.

A Decoupling of Price and Capital: Capital Concerns in the Bitcoin Bull Run

In May of this year, Bitcoin once broke through the $104,000 barrier, which is the historical high point from December of last year, sparking heated discussions in the market. However, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out a concerning phenomenon in a market observation published on social platform X: "There is a significant divergence between Bitcoin prices and capital inflows."

Methods to observe the capital flow in the market

If a community has 10 houses, and the developer prices them at 1 million each, the total market value (Market Cap) of the community's houses is 10 million. One year later, an owner sells his house for 2 million. Although the other 9 owners have not sold, the market prices the houses based on the most recent transaction price, raising the community's MC to 20 million. Even though it has increased by 10 million, there has not actually been 10 million in funds flowing in. … pic.twitter.com/CliKJzpH7G

— Murphy (@Murphychen888) May 12, 2025

Although the price is rising rapidly, the actual funds injected into the market are far less than before, indicating that the market enthusiasm may be higher than the actual support.

Understanding Capital Flow through Real Estate: Decoding the Gap between Market Value and Real Assets

To help readers understand the difference between capital flow and market value, Murphy uses a real estate analogy: "If a community has 10 properties each priced at 1 million, the total value is 10 million; if one of the properties is sold for 2 million, the overall value adjusts to 20 million, but the actual capital that flowed in is only 2 million."

This kind of "apparent value inflation" is just like the Bitcoin market:

The rise in BTC prices does not necessarily equate to real capital entering the market; only when BTC is sold does the capital actually enter the market. This is the core meaning of "Realized Cap" and is more reflective of the true temperature of the market than merely looking at market capitalization.

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Three key data points to grasp the truth behind capital flow.

Murphy pointed out that observing the flow of capital in the market can focus on three major indicators:

Stablecoin market capitalization changes: It is possible to observe the trend of funds flowing in from outside, but it does not equate to all of it converting into purchasing power.

Change in net positions of exchange stablecoins: reflects whether investors are actually putting funds into the market, such as buying coins or increasing margin.

The realized market value increase and decrease of Bitcoin and Ethereum: the most direct reflection of the actual capital injection situation of mainstream assets.

The third point is particularly critical. If the realized market value of Bitcoin and Ethereum only increases by several billion dollars within 30 days, but is accompanied by a significant price pump, it indicates that there is clearly insufficient capital support.

Charts Reveal the Truth: Historical Data Supports the Accumulation of Divergence Risk

Murphy further compared the fund performance during the past several Bitcoin pumps with three sets of data:

Stablecoin market cap changes: In December 2024, Bitcoin surged to $100,000, and the stablecoin market cap increased by $20.7 billion within 30 days; in May 2025, the price jumped to $104,000, but only increased by $6.7 billion, indicating a clear lack of momentum.

Net inflow of stablecoins to exchanges: In December 2024, the inflow reached as high as 15.5 billion USD, but by May 2025, it was only 2 billion USD, indicating a decline in market participation.

The realized market value increase: In December 2024, it reached 109.5 billion USD, while in May 2025, it only increased by 24.2 billion USD, showing a significant gap.

Data shows that although Bitcoin is currently at an all-time high, the supporting funds behind it are far less than before, creating a typical "high price and low volume" phenomenon. Attention should be paid to the severe adjustments that may occur when the chips loosen.

Market Outlook Analysis: Rationally Viewing the Fatigue Signals in the Bull Run

Regarding the future trend, Murphy maintains a cautiously optimistic view. He pointed out that although the market has not peaked yet, with rising prices, the cost of turnover is increasing, and the flow of funds is slowing down, subsequent pressure is bound to increase:

When the influx of funds cannot keep up with the price pump, the market may struggle to maintain high levels, and the risk of profit-taking or a pullback will also increase.

He suggests that investors should continuously track capital flow data to avoid entering the market at high prices due to overheating emotions.

In a bull run, one must not lose direction; the flow of funds is the thermometer of the market.

Murphy's in-depth analysis has garnered widespread attention in the market. He clearly illustrates with logic and charts that the capital momentum behind the price is the key to observing whether the bull run is healthy. When there is a gap between Bitcoin's "value" and "capital flow," it is the time for investors to be alert.

In the highly volatile crypto market, only by maintaining rationality and being data-driven can one truly stand undefeated.

This article Bitcoin price surge hides concerns, analysts: three indicators weaken exposing insufficient capital inflow. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.