Ethereum rose by 50% in a week, aiming for $3000, while Bitcoin ETF attracted 41 billion, igniting a bull run.

Written by: Lawrence

Market Overview: Ethereum Leads, Crypto Assets Surge Across the Board

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has entered a new round of frenzy. Ethereum (ETH) has strongly broken through the $2700 mark, reaching a high of $2725, with a daily increase of 8%. Over the past 7 days, the cumulative increase has exceeded 50%, marking the best weekly performance since 2022.

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed to $104,200, with a 24-hour increase of 1.5%, firmly staying above $100,000; Solana (SOL) rose over 5% to $185, while Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw gains of 4%-5%. Behind this round of explosive growth, record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum's technological upgrades, and shifts in the macroeconomic environment have created a resonance, pushing the crypto market into a new phase of "institutional bull".

Bitcoin ETF: Attracting Over $41 Billion Against the Trend, Becoming the Core Channel for Institutional Entry

1. Historic Breakthrough: Record Capital Inflows

As of May 13, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States reached $41.1 billion, surpassing the peak in February 2024 and setting a new historical record. This data indicates that since being approved for listing in January, the demand for Bitcoin allocation by traditional financial institutions has continued to heat up, even during the market correction in April, with funds still flowing in steadily.

2. Policy and Market Sentiment Resonance

At the beginning of the year, the "Stablecoin Regulatory Act" promoted by the Trump administration and the SEC chairman nomination of pro-crypto individuals cleared policy obstacles for ETFs. Although there was a brief outflow of funds (a total of $5 billion) in March-April due to concerns about the global trade war, as the US-UK tariff agreement was reached and China-US trade negotiations resumed, risk appetite rebounded, and in May, weekly ETF inflows surged to $882 million, with institutional funds accelerating to "buy the dip."

3. Analyst's View: Long-term Confidence Indicator

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out: "Net inflows are the most genuine indicator of confidence; even during the peak of the Trump tariff panic, funds quickly flowed back in, proving that the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' has gained mainstream recognition." ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy added that ETFs have lowered the participation threshold for retail and institutional investors, becoming the core driving force for Bitcoin to break through $100,000.

Ethereum Surge: Triple Engine of Technical Upgrades + Short Squeeze Market + Whales Increasing Holdings

1. Pectra upgrade implemented, technical barriers strengthened

On May 7th, Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade, introducing key technologies such as account abstraction (EIP-7702) and increasing the staking cap, significantly reducing Gas fees and enhancing network flexibility. This upgrade is seen as a crucial measure to counter competitors like Solana and directly stimulates the confidence of developers and investors.

2. The futures market "short squeeze" ignites short-term trading.

Starting from May 8, the Ethereum futures market experienced a massive liquidation of short positions, with a total liquidation amount reaching $438 million, far exceeding the long liquidation amount ($211 million). The price surge forced shorts to cover their positions, creating a rising spiral. During the same period, the open interest in Ethereum increased by 25% ($21.28 billion → $26.77 billion), and the funding rate for perpetual contracts rose to 0.15%, indicating that longs are dominating the market.

3. Strategic Accumulation by Whale Addresses

On-chain data shows that "whales" holding over 10,000 ETH have been continuously accumulating since late April, with their holdings rising to the highest level since March 2025 (over 40.75 million ETH). The movements of these whales usually indicate large investors' recognition of mid- to long-term value, further consolidating bullish market expectations.

Macro drivers: Cooling inflation and easing trade boost risk assets

1. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts rise

In April, the US CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year (previous value 2.8%), close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The core CPI increased only by 0.2% month-on-month, which was below expectations. After the data was released, the market's betting on the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 48.9%, and expectations of liquidity easing stimulated funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market.

2. Easing of Global Trade Tensions

On May 8, the US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, reducing the tariff on UK car exports to the US from 27.5% to 10%, with steel tariffs eliminated; the resumption of trade talks between China and the US has weakened the risk of a "tariff war." The removal of trade barriers creates a favorable environment for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

3. Traditional Financial Market Linkage

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively, as tech stocks strengthened in tandem with crypto assets. Greg Magadini, Head of Derivatives at Amberdata, noted: "ETH has a stronger correlation with U.S. equities, and Ethereum is expected to break through the $2,800 resistance level if risk assets continue to rally. ”

Market Concerns: High Volatility and Technical Risks

1. The options market hides signals of a pullback

Despite the surge in spot prices, the implied volatility of Ethereum options remains low, indicating that the market is unprepared for a short-term surge. Data from Deribit shows that $2800 is a key gamma resistance level, and if it fails to break through effectively, a profit-taking scenario may occur.

2. Institutional Fund Differentiation

The capital absorption ability of Bitcoin ETFs far exceeds that of other assets (Ethereum ETFs have only seen an inflow of $1.5 million), and competitive public chains like Solana and Sui are siphoning off funds (Sui has seen an inflow of $84 million year-to-date), which may exacerbate market volatility.

3. Regulatory and Geopolitical Variables

Trump's "digital gold strategy" still has uncertainties, the SEC's review of Ethereum's security attributes has not yet concluded, and if there is a sudden shift in policy direction, the market may face severe adjustments.

Conclusion: The second half of the bull market has begun, seeking structural opportunities amidst volatility.

The recent surge in the cryptocurrency market is both a milestone in the institutionalization process of Bitcoin ETFs and a result of the resonance between Ethereum's technological ecosystem and macroeconomic dividends. In the short term, the market needs to digest the gains and pay attention to the key resistance at $2800; in the medium to long term, institutional capital inflow, technological upgrades, and the interest rate cut cycle may jointly support the continuation of the bull market. Investors should focus on ETH/BTC, spot ETF dynamics, the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the progress of Layer 2 ecosystems to seize structural opportunities amid volatility.