Has the crypto market already digested the negative impact of the Israel-Iran conflict?

Written by: White55

Introduction: The Mystery of Digital Asset Resilience in Turbulent Times

In June 2025, the global financial market is performing an epic stress test: Ukrainian drones have destroyed 41 nuclear bombers, triggering fears of nuclear proliferation; the China-U.S. tariff war has reignited; Middle Eastern missiles are cutting through the night sky... Traditional safe-haven asset gold has surged past $3,450 per ounce, nearing a new high, while Bitcoin has displayed remarkable stability around the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "desensitized" from geopolitical crises, reflects profound changes in the underlying logic of the crypto market. This article will decode the survival rules of Bitcoin amidst macro shocks from three dimensions: market structure, macro cycles, and the reconstruction of monetary order.

1. The failure of the transmission mechanism of geopolitical shocks: from panic amplifiers to risk isolators.

2. The "passivation effect" of conflict impact

On June 13, during the Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Bitcoin dropped 2% within 2 hours but quickly stabilized, contrasting sharply with the 10% single-day drop during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. This improvement in resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: Glassnode data shows that the proportion of long-term holders (LTH) exceeded 70% in 2025, while the share of speculative chips fell to a five-year low. Institutional investors have established a hedging system through the derivatives market, effectively cushioning the instant impact of sudden events.

2. Paradigm Shift of Risk Aversion Logic

The traditional perception of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is being redefined. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve starting a rate cut cycle, the negative correlation (-0.72) between Bitcoin and the real yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, bringing it closer to being a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. When the U.S. Treasury auction encountered weak demand on June 1, leading to a surge in real interest rates, Bitcoin's inverse rally validated this new attribute.

3. Geopolitical premium's "targeted absorption"

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has objectively accelerated the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of oil exports settled in Bitcoin by the Central Bank of Iran has exceeded 15%, and this penetration of the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin. Monitoring by the blockchain analysis company Chainalysis shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in the conflict areas surged by 300% after the events.

2. The Nested Game of Macro Cycles: Dual Support from Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Relief

3. The certainty dividend of the shift in monetary policy

The CME Federal Reserve Watch Tool shows that the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in Q3 has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium of the June 15th futures contract has risen to 23%, setting a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data indicates that in the 3 months prior to the start of a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase reaches 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.

2. Structural Resolution of Inflation Stickiness

In May, the core PCE price index fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) returned to pre-pandemic levels. This weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative, but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. MicroStrategy's latest financial report shows that the accounting treatment of corporate Bitcoin holdings has shifted from "intangible assets" to "strategic reserves," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into growth stock valuation frameworks.

3. The Arbitrage Space of Sino-US Policy Divergence

The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces over the past 6 months, while the U.S. Treasury has driven the dollar index down by 12% this year through a "controlled devaluation" strategy. This contradictory monetary policy has given rise to a gray channel for cross-border capital to arbitrage through Bitcoin. Chainalysis has monitored a 470% increase in Bitcoin OTC trading volume along the China-U.S. trade corridor during the tariff dispute.

3. Deep Changes in Market Structure: From Retail Frenzy to Institutional Pricing

4. Deleveraging of the position structure

In the futures open interest for 2025, the proportion of hedging positions has surpassed 60% for the first time, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains stable below 0.01% per day. This change has led the market to no longer rely on leveraged funds for momentum, and the "double explosion" phenomenon of long and short positions commonly seen in 2021 has basically disappeared. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $130 billion in assets under management, and its daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX).

2. The "Layered Reinforcement" of Liquidity Structure

Coinbase's institutional custody account balance surpasses 4 million bitcoins, accounting for about 21% of the circulating supply. These "cold storage" chips act as a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to break through key support levels. When the panic selling triggered by the Iranian missile attack on June 14 occurred, over $3 billion in buy orders appeared at the $100,000 level, with 90% coming from institutional OTC desks.

3. The "Traditional Integration" of Valuation Systems

The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.32, while the correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks has risen to 0.61. This shift reflects the market's reconstruction of valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: Bitcoin's volatility (annualized at 45%) is now close to that of technology growth stocks, significantly lower than the 128% seen in 2021.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin found support at the 50-day simple moving average ($103,604) on Friday, but bulls struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,028). This indicates a lack of buying interest at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

According to the BTC/USDT daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the midpoint, which does not give a clear advantage to either bulls or bears. If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. Sellers are expected to firmly defend this upper area, but if the bulls gain the upper hand, the pair could soar to $130,000.

On the downside, breaking below the 50-day moving average (SMA) may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level is breached, the currency pair could drop to $93,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Data source: TradingView

The seller is trying to prevent a price rebound at the 20-day moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. If the price drops significantly and falls below $104,000, the short-term advantage will shift to the bears. The currency pair may drop to $102,664 and then to $100,000. Buyers are expected to firmly defend the $100,000 level.

Bulls must push the price to break above the 50-day moving average (SMA) to gain control. After that, the currency pair may soar to $110,530.

V. Future Path Prediction: Summer Dormancy and Autumn Offensive

1. June to August: Consolidation and accumulation period

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts. On the technical side, the 200-day moving average (currently at $96,500) will provide strong support. The pulse-like impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but market depth indicators show that the amount of funds required for each 1% price fluctuation has increased to three times that of 2022.

2. November 9-11: Main upward wave starts

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October reaches 21.89%. Coupled with the possible first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to challenge $150,000. At that time, the peak maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds ($6.5 trillion) could force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the second release of dollar liquidity will become the best catalyst. The options market has seen a large accumulation of call options expiring in December with a strike price of $140,000.

3. Risk Warning: Regulatory Gray Rhino

The SEC's enforcement action against stablecoin issuer Paxos may trigger short-term volatility, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract over $200 billion in traditional asset management funds. Investors should be wary of the "Christmas pullback" after the November surge, as historical data shows that the average drawdown during this stage in a bull market cycle reaches 18%.

Conclusion: The Position of Bitcoin in the New Monetary Order

As gold is about to break through $3,500, the yield curve of U.S. Treasuries continues to invert, and the proportion of cross-border settlements in Renminbi surpasses that of the U.S. dollar, we are witnessing the most profound monetary revolution since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Bitcoin plays a dual role in this transformation: it is both a beneficiary of the collapse of the old system's credit and a builder of the infrastructure for the new order. Its price stability no longer stems from reduced volatility but from a reconstruction of underlying value support — evolving from a speculative symbol into a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. Perhaps, as Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates says: "In the long winter of fiat currency order reconstruction, Bitcoin is proving to be the most frost-resistant seedling."