15,000 BTC sold at a loss: Bitcoin about to fall below $100k?

Bitcoin is experiencing a relatively bleak week, as armed conflict between Israel and Iran, along with uncertainties ahead of the FOMC meeting in America, has left investors and traders on the sidelines. Although the market is quite quiet, on-chain data from CryptoQuant has revealed a noteworthy development: over 15,000 BTC held by short term holders (STH) has been moved at a loss this week.

STH BTC sold at a loss in 24 hours | Source: CryptoQuantAccording to data from Glassnode, 959 BTC was transferred to the exchange in a loss state on Monday, this number surged to 16,700 BTC on Wednesday and coincided with the price drop of BTC from 106,500 to 103,500 dollars. Such on-chain activity reflects a familiar behavioral pattern, where STH – often referred to as "weak hands" tend to panic sell during price drops, often to cut losses.

This selling behavior indicates increased activity from the STH group during market corrections. When the "weak hands" exit their positions, the coins are often transferred to long-term holders (LTH) — also known as "strong hands," thereby contributing to market stability and creating a more sustainable price foundation.

Notably, the total supply held by the STH group is on a downward trend, especially after significant price drops. The decreasing selling pressure from weak hands opens up accumulation opportunities and may indicate that a price bottom is forming.

Comparing changes in net positions STH-LTH | Source: CryptoQuantThe chart of net position changes between STH and LTH provides additional insights, showing strong selling activity from STH over the past month. Notably, the majority of this selling has been absorbed by LTH – a factor that could play a crucial role in helping BTC maintain above the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin is in the "blind zone" and needs new buying power

According to data from the Swissblock analytics platform, Bitcoin is currently moving in the "blind zone" of the market. The data shows that the delta of spot trading volume has consistently been negative since June, indicating that selling pressure still exists despite a slight recovery in price due to weak buying power. Although the bearish pressure is gradually easing, this still suggests that the current correction may extend before a significant breakout occurs — depending on the return of buying force.

! Bitcoin Delta Bitcoin Spot Volume | Source: SwissblockConsidering the possibility of a short-term correction before the price recovers, Bitcoin's on-chain price base for short-term holders shows a support zone between $97,000 and $94,000. This could be a local bottom, sweeping through key liquidation levels below $100,000 and at the same time retesting the (FVG) reasonable spread area as well as blocking orders on the date frame within the mentioned range

BTC price chart 1 day | Source: TradingViewĐình Đình