How does an air strike ignite the pricing logic of global assets?

The roar above the Fudo at 3 a.m.

In mid-June 2025, in the early hours of the morning, a huge roar tore through the Fordo Mountain area in central Iran. B-2 stealth bombers flew across the night sky, dropping multiple precision-guided bombs. Fordo is where Iran's deepest and most sensitive nuclear facilities are located. This attack was dubbed by US officials as a "necessary strike to curb nuclear proliferation".

CNN first confirmed: US military launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Just a few hours later, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded by stating that they will take reciprocal actions against any aggression, while the US Secretary of Defense emphasized that this is a limited and restrained military action.

The flames of war not only ignite the sky of the Middle East, but also instantly ignite the risk-averse nerves of the global market. However, in the early hours of June 24th, the official Iranian television announced a ceasefire agreement with Israel. This sudden 'brake' caused a dramatic reversal in market sentiment - oil prices, gold, the US dollar index and other safe-haven assets, which were originally soaring in the flames of war, began to pull back, while the Nasdaq and Bitcoin turned from sharp declines to retaliatory rebounds.

Why now? Why did the United States suddenly take action?

This assault is by no means a momentary impulse, but a crossroads of tripartite games:

1. Iran is just one step away from "having nuclear weapons"

A United Nations verification report shows that Iran's uranium enrichment level has approached the weapons-grade threshold. The Fordow nuclear facility, one of the few globally located deep underground in hard mountains and difficult to be destroyed by conventional means, is the last restraint against the 'nuclear threshold' being breached by US military intervention.

2. The power vacuum in the Middle East forces the United States to "step in" personally

In the past two years, the United States has scaled back its Middle East strategy, while Iran has continued to expand its influence by supporting Houthi armed forces, creating shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, and backing proxies. While the situation in Yemen remains in a stalemate, the United States urgently needs to reassert its regional dominance through substantive military means.

3. Trump's first "global strongman" card

In early 2025, Trump, who returned to the White House, urgently needs a diplomatic event that can quickly unify domestic public opinion, strike political opponents, and demonstrate a tough image. This airstrike has achieved the above objectives appropriately. Taking action at this time was his precisely arranged 'political pinpoint strike'.

Hormuz blockade threat triggers market pulse response

Hours after the airstrike, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued a warning: if the US continues to provoke, the Strait of Hormuz will face a blockade. This passage accounts for 20% of global oil export routes and is the "artery" of the Middle East's energy economy.

This threat immediately caused a violent fluctuation in the market:

• Brent crude oil surged to $124 per barrel during the day, hitting a two-year high
• Gold broke through $3400 per ounce overnight
• The U.S. bond yield quickly fell, indicating a surge in safe-haven demand
• The Nasdaq futures plunged more than 2%, and the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin once fell below $100,000.

Major investment banks warn: 'If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for more than two weeks, global inflation will return to its 2022 peak.'

But just on June 24, Iran announced a ceasefire with Israel, and the price of crude oil fell to around $105, the Nasdaq and BTC rebounded, and the gold rise paused, entering a "brief respite period" in the market.

Bitcoin: not a "safe-haven asset", but a "liquidity escape"

Many people ask: Why did Bitcoin fall first when war, inflation, and risk aversion erupted?

The answer is very clear: In the current macro framework, Bitcoin still looks more like a "high Beta risk asset" rather than "digital gold." War brings not a single "safe-haven sentiment," but a complex chain reaction—when rising oil prices trigger expectations of interest rate reversal and enhanced expectations of liquidity tightening, institutional funds are the first to reduce positions in volatility assets and increase the proportion of US dollar cash.

And bitcoin, is precisely one of these "easily liquidated" assets. In other words: Bitcoin is used as an "ATM", not a "safe deposit box".

However, with the ceasefire rumors landing, funds are flowing back, and BTC has rebounded to above $105,000 in the short term, but confidence repair still takes time.

Is ceasefire the end point? Or is it halftime?

The ceasefire agreement has temporarily "relaxed nerves" in the market, but this does not mean that the risks have been eliminated:

The fundamental contradictions in the Middle East have not been resolved, the conflict in Ha has not ended, Iran's nuclear program has not stopped, and the United States' tough stance continues; the global energy market is still in a "highly sensitive period," with geopolitical risk premiums supporting oil prices from below;

The Fed's interest rate policy is being repriced. If inflation continues to rise, the 'rate cut expectation' may be postponed indefinitely; the de-dollarization trend is accelerating due to war risks. More and more countries are exploring on-chain settlement paths, and digital gold and central bank digital currencies are receiving policy attention.

**In other words, this is not an end, but a "revaluation" of the global asset valuation system.

This is not the "Third World War", but it may be a "liquidity turning point"

The Iranian air strike and the market turmoil after the ceasefire could be a structural turning point for the global financial markets in 2025:

Broken the market's expectation of 'inevitable rate cut within the year'

Shaken the confidence in the blind rise of "technology + encrypted assets"

Rekindle faith in traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, oil, and US bonds

Let the market realize that - war, inflation, and liquidity are the three-in-one sources of risk.

And the global financial system is heading towards a more turbulent, more fragmented new path - currency settlement diversification, energy pricing complexification, and risk asset pricing fragility.

At the end: The market never sees war, but confidence.

When we stare at the flames over Iran, don't forget, behind this conflict, what truly drives the market reassessment is never the bomb, but the 'anticipated collapse' and 'shift in confidence'.

War is fire, and the market is wind. When the wind meets fire, what burns is not just the front line, but also our asset allocation and investment strategy.

Ceasefire is just a respite, and the shock will continue.