Let's talk about my views on liquidity in the crypto world.

Most people in the market are still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the liquidity in the entire crypto world is currently very dispersed and fragmented, which is completely different from the support in previous cycles.

The effectiveness of Bitcoin continuing to rise is quite poor. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, I think around 110,000 to 113,000 is about right, and currently, it will be in a consolidation phase, a pullback, and continuous adjustment. This is the process.

It is also unlikely that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts later. Many people predict it will reach 180,000 and 200,000 USD, approximately. I think the highest will be around 130,000, even 120,000 USD. This is probably about a peak.

The possibility of the anticipated altcoin season, where all coins soar together, has become extremely small.

We are currently at the tail end of the Bitcoin bull market, or in the mid to later stages. Once the bull market ends, Bitcoin will not follow the same pattern as previous cycles, with a four-year cycle, nor will there be a very large correction.

In previous cycles, after the end of each bull market, Bitcoin would experience a drop of 30%, or even up to 50%, and it is very likely that Bitcoin will enter a supercycle narrative and state similar to the S&P 500. Now, Bitcoin is very different from before; its consensus has been established. The consensus built at various institutional and national levels will lead to more chips flowing into the hands of institutions and countries. The coins held by retail investors are likely to be continuously washed out, and the number of retail investors who hold Bitcoin steadily will decrease, so assets will gradually become more concentrated in the hands of the state, large institutions, and new funds.

My opinion on altcoins is that most of them will eventually go to zero. Some mainstream altcoins may experience fluctuations in their consensus price depending on the project team and the overall community, with both increases and decreases. In a very favorable situation, there may be a significant rise. However, I believe that this increase cannot be sustained for long, just like when Trump announced that XrP, ada, and other coins would be included in the national strategic reserve. It will see a huge increase in the short term due to positive news, but this increase will also be quickly eaten away and will fall back.

I think if you want to hold mainstream altcoins, I mean the top ten by market capitalization. This might yield some returns during short-term fluctuations and pullbacks. In short, the overall feeling in the crypto world right now is that holding any coin, including Bitcoin, will not bring you very significant returns.

However, regarding Bitcoin, there is a new consensus on whether it is a safe-haven asset or a risky asset. The consensus leaning towards it being a safe-haven asset is much stronger than in previous years, and this consensus aspect will also be much larger. However, in terms of price, as I mentioned, if there is no interest rate cut, it might stay around 11. If there is an interest rate cut in a quarter, in the best-case scenario, it could reach around 130,000 to 140,000.

Note: Holding mainstream altcoins does not constitute any investment advice!