Wave 3 Explodes as XRP Breaks Structure—Analyst Says 'Fireworks Are Coming'

A few hours after Ripple Labs announced it would abandon its lengthy appeal in the securities lawsuit with the Securities and Exchange Commission, market analyst CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) on X argued that the price structure of XRP has completed its correction phase and "is currently in wave 3." An anonymous trader described how the drop to $2.07 on Friday "tagged" three separate Fibonacci confluence points—the 0.618 retracement level of the rally from March to May, the 1:1 equal target for wave C of the previous correction, and the 0.618 extension of sub-wave 5. She noted, "The market surged from that exact price point," before adding, "The $2.07 level is tagged. The $2.25 level is loading. XRP is in the process of breaking out!"

XRP enters Wave 3 By noon in Europe on Monday, the price of XRP was trading at $2.19, up about 4% from Friday's closing and up 8.5% from a week ago. That recovery has brought this token to the brink of the next "major test" cited by CasiTrades: the long-monitored $2.25 region, which she notes coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from XRP's 2021 peak. In classic Elliott Wave analysis, a decisive breakout and retest of that level would then confirm the beginning of a strong third wave, a phase where momentum typically accelerates and sentiment decisively flips towards bullish. CasiTrades has outlined two short-term paths: either a slight increase to $2.30, then a retest of $2.25, or a stronger expansion to the range of $2.45–$2.69 before any significant pullback. "From here, I am monitoring two main scenarios in the short term: ) Moving to $2.30, followed by a pullback to retest $2.25 as support. This would be ideal and healthy. 2) Or, the price pushes further to ~$2.45, closer to the resistance level of $2.69. There is a small pullback, before hitting $2.69 with resistance. In this plan, a retest of $2.25 will then be expected," Casi wrote via X. She argues that in both cases, the structural message is the same: "Reversing that level will open the door to the next complete breakthrough... when these local resistances are no longer there → fireworks will explode." This technical argument arises at a time when a significant fundamental surplus seems to be fading. On June 27, Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, announced that the company would withdraw the cross-appeal it filed last year against certain aspects of Judge Analisa Torres's split decision regarding XRP sales. "We will close this chapter once and for all," Garlinghouse wrote on X, adding that the SEC "is also expected to withdraw its appeal." This move came a day after Torres denied a joint request from both parties to reduce Ripple's civil penalty to $50 million and lift her permanent injunction. This context helps explain why the recovery of the "golden ratio" Fibonacci at $2.07 has generated such a strong reaction. But currently, the market's focus is on whether XRP can turn the $2.25 threshold from a resistance level into a support level. If so, the next historical supply zone will be between $2.60 and $2.70—an area that capped rallies in December 2021 and March 2022. A breakout beyond that zone would leave little resistance on the chart before the psychological milestones at $3.00 and the all-time high closing near $3.40 set in January 2018. Nevertheless, technical experts warn that Elliott Wave targets remain probabilistic, not a certainty that can be predicted, and any changes in new macro regulations could reset the calculations. Friday's ruling also upheld the ban on Ripple, meaning the company still has to navigate through a non-existent compliance regime since the lawsuit began in 2020. Whether these realities will dampen the excitement around wave 3 remains to be seen. However, according to CasiTrades, timing is everything: "This is exactly why we rely on TA. Charts help us spot setups before the news breaks. News has a stronger impact after the price has been positioned." For a market that has waited more than four years to see its defining legal saga come to an end, traders seem ready to test that adage on the way to $2.25—and beyond.