Bitwise: Bitcoin bullish to $200,000, doubts on new highs for ETH, SOL | Crypto market outlook and review

Recently (June 30, 2025), the well-known asset management company Bitwise released its "Mid-Year Report" document, reviewing its prediction accuracy for the first half of 2025 made in December 2024, and making new predictions for the second half. Bitwise expects that the price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year, while Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will not set new all-time highs (ATH) for the remainder of 2025.

This document, written by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, is a follow-up assessment of their "Bold Predictions" for December 2024 and provides new cryptocurrency market forecasts for the second half of 2025.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana's New High Predictions

• Bitcoin ($BTC) Prediction: 200,000 USD target remains unchanged
  • Prediction for December 2024: Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in 2025 and set a new high. (Partially correct)
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: Bitcoin did indeed reach a historic high of $112,000 in May, but did not meet the target of $200,000.
  • Reasons for Growth (Original Forecast): Strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, substantial BTC purchases by corporate treasuries, and the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States.
  • Outlook for the second half of 2025: Bitwise maintains a Bitcoin target of $200,000. Bullish factors include: pro-crypto policies of the Trump 2.0 administration, ongoing high institutional demand, and the growth of stablecoins (driving Bitcoin network utility).
• Ethereum ($ETH) and Solana ($SOL) new highs: confidence waning
  • Prediction for December 2024: ETH and SOL will reach new highs in 2025. (Prediction Revision)
  • Outlook for the second half of 2025: Bitwise revises its view, stating that it is "not as confident" about ETH and SOL hitting new highs within the year.
  • Potential Hope: The potential approval of a stablecoin ETF, and the possible emergence of "financial department companies" holding SOL and ETH in the future (though none have been seen so far).

Review and Update of Other Key Predictions

• Bitcoin ETF Capital Inflows: Is the Prediction "Correct"?
  • December 2024 Prediction: The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2025 will exceed $35 billion in 2024.
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: Actual inflow was only 13 billion USD (far lower than the entire year of 2024).
  • Bitwise Perspective: Still believe the prediction is "correct," as the number of platforms supporting Bitcoin ETFs continues to grow (implying potential in the second half of the year).
• RWA Tokenization Scale: Firm $5 Billion Target
  • Forecast for December 2024: The total value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA, such as real estate) will exceed $50 billion in 2025.
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: The total value of RWA increased from $13 billion to $25 billion.
  • Outlook for the second half of 2025: Bitwise maintains its $50 billion target unchanged.
• National Bitcoin Holdings: Quantity has not doubled, but the trend continues
  • Prediction for December 2024: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double from 9 to 18.
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: Not doubled.
  • Bitwise Perspective: Believes that national accumulation of Bitcoin may be happening in secret, the trend of national Bitcoin reserves will continue.
• Stablecoin AUM: Target lowered but still close
  • Forecast for December 2024: The asset under management (AUM) of stablecoins is expected to reach $400 billion by 2025.
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: Current AUM is $230 billion.
  • Outlook for the second half of 2025: Bitwise acknowledges that the target of 400 billion is "too high," but expects the actual scale to be "close." Driving factors: anticipation of the passage of the "GENIUS Act" and Mastercard leveraging its global network of 15 million merchants to promote the adoption of stablecoins.
• AI and Meme Coin Frenzy: Misguided Predictions, Hype Pauses
  • December 2024 Prediction: The frenzy for AI coins and Meme coins will continue and even exceed that of 2024 in 2025.
  • Performance in the first half of 2025: With the collapse of tokens such as LIBRA, Official Trump (TRUMP), and MELANIA, the craze has come to a halt.
  • Bitwise Viewpoint: Acknowledging Forecast Errors.

Questions on Bitwise Predictions (Market Observation)

Although Bitwise views Washington's push for clearer cryptocurrency regulation in the United States as a positive factor for driving up the price of Bitcoin, the reality is that the road is full of bumps:

1. Implementation Challenges of Policies: Recent lobbying efforts by the cryptocurrency industry have failed to include pro-cryptocurrency amendments in the "large tax reform bill." There is intense debate between Republicans and Democrats over the regulatory framework for stablecoins.
2. US Bitcoin Strategic Reserves Disappointing:
   • This reserve only refers to Bitcoins confiscated by law enforcement agencies, the use of fiscal funds to purchase new Bitcoins is prohibited, and its growth prospects are unclear.
   • The government has not released the audit results regarding the confiscation of Bitcoin (allegedly over 200,000 coins), raising public doubts about its authenticity and security.
   • Senator Cynthia Lummis's efforts to use funds to purchase at least 1 million Bitcoins for reserves and to promote crypto-friendly tax reform have all ended in failure.

It is currently difficult to determine whether these negative factors (policy obstacles, strategic reserves not living up to their name) will completely offset the positive progress (SEC withdrawing lawsuits against large crypto companies from the Biden era, the Trump administration's overall pro-crypto stance) in boosting the market.