Crypto Market Q3 Macro Report: Institutional Adoption Drives Selective Bull Run

1. The macro turning point has arrived: the policy environment is warming up

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro environment has quietly changed. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the accelerated construction of a global crypto regulatory framework, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning point. The market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025, and it is expected that the actual interest rates in the U.S. will gradually decline from high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This expectation opens up an upward channel for the valuation of risk assets, especially digital assets.

In terms of fiscal policy, the fiscal expansion represented by the "American Rescue Plan" is bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital assets.

In terms of the regulatory environment, the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that regulators have recognized that income-generating digital assets can enter the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs, intending to create a replicable and scalable channel for compliant financial products. This represents a fundamental shift in regulatory logic from a "firewall" approach to a "pipeline engineering" approach.

In addition, there are signs of a recovery in risk appetite in the traditional financial market. The S&P 500 has reached a new high, technology stocks and emerging assets are rebounding in sync, and the IPO market is warming up, signaling that capital is flowing back.

Driven by both policy and market forces, the brewing of a new bull run is not fueled by emotions but is a process of value reassessment driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder yet more powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutional Leadership in the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail and short-term funds to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

Regarding Bitcoin, the total amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies has surpassed the net purchases of ETFs. Companies view Bitcoin as a strategic cash alternative, which has stronger holding resilience.

In terms of financial infrastructure, the approval of Ethereum staking ETFs signifies that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional investment portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana ETFs further expands the realm of possibilities. The application of Grayscale's large crypto fund to convert into an ETF marks the breaking down of the "barriers" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms.

Companies are also directly participating in the on-chain financial market. Bitmine has directly increased its holdings of ETH through a private placement of 20 million USD, while DeFi Development has invested 100 million USD in the acquisition of Solana ecosystem projects and platform equity buybacks, representing that companies are actively participating in building a new generation of crypto financial ecology.

Traditional financial institutions are also actively laying out their strategies in the derivatives and on-chain liquidity sectors. The open interest for Solana futures on CME has reached a new high, and the monthly trading volume of XRP futures has surpassed $500 million, indicating that traditional trading institutions have included encryption assets in their strategy models.

At the same time, the "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly being implemented. From traditional banks to emerging retail financial platforms, they are all expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only enables crypto assets to achieve "usability within the fiat currency system," but also provides them with richer financial attributes.

This round of structural turnover is essentially a deep expansion of the "financial commoditization" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing, which will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. New Era of Shanzhai Season: Selective Bull Run Approaches

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the general bull run is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull market" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a manifestation of the gradual maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From the perspective of structural signals, the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has experienced a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, with whale addresses accumulating millions of ETH in a very short time. Frequent large on-chain transactions indicate that major funds have begun to reprice primary assets such as Ethereum.

The ETF application has become a new anchor point for thematic structure. In particular, the Solana spot ETF has been regarded as the next "market consensus event". From the launch of the Ethereum staking ETF to whether the staking yield on the Solana chain will be included in the ETF dividend structure, investors have begun to layout around staking assets. In this new narrative cycle, asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real yield distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation".

In the DeFi space, users are beginning to shift from "points airdrop type DeFi" to "cash flow type DeFi". Protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms have become core indicators for assessing asset value. This shift has led to the emergence of projects like Renzo, Size Credit, and Yield Nest, which attract continuous capital inflow through innovative designs such as structured yield products and fixed-rate vaults.

The choice of capital has also become more "realistic." Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions, and cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience integration have become key factors determining the direction of funds.

Overall, the core feature of this round of altcoin season is "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic." The crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade of the bull market. The future will belong to those who understand the narrative logic, comprehend the financial structure, and are willing to quietly accumulate positions in a "quiet market."

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Balancing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The market layout for the third quarter of 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven localized outbreaks." A layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite for navigating the fluctuations of the third quarter.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows have not reversed, corporate treasuries continue to increase their holdings, and the Federal Reserve's policy signals a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect.

In the logic of mainstream asset rotation, Solana is the most thematic explosive target in Q3. With the staking mechanism expected to be incorporated into the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" property is attracting a large amount of capital for pre-positioning. From the current price level, SOL already has a very strong cost-performance ratio and Beta elasticity.

The DeFi portfolio is worth continuing to restructure. Currently, the focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects can refer to SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., using an equal-weight allocation method to capture the relative returns of individual projects that outperform and reinvest the profits.

Meme assets should strictly control their exposure ratio,建议限制在总资产净值的5%以内，并以期权思维进行仓位管理。对于习惯做事件驱动交易的投资者而言，这类资产可作为情绪补仓工具，但不能误判为趋势核心。

In addition to the configuration thinking, another key aspect of the third quarter is the timing of event-driven deployment. The current market is facing a transition period from an "information vacuum" to "intensive event releases." With the review node for the Solana ETF approaching, the market is expected to experience a wave of "policy + capital resonance" from mid-August to early September. The layout for such events should be anticipated in advance and gradually accumulated to avoid chasing high traps.

In addition, attention should be paid to the momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and the promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration. For investors capable of in-depth analysis of roadmaps, early opportunities in such projects can also be part of a high-volatility strategy, but it is essential to control positions and adhere to risk management.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flooding" betting mentality and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchored by core, driven by events". In the new environment where ETF capital is continuously expanding, the market is quietly reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns."

V. Conclusion: A new round of wealth migration is on the way

Every round of bull and bear cycles is essentially a periodic reshuffle of value reassessment. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real earnings is brewing.

The role of Bitcoin has fundamentally changed, gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises and serving as a national-level inflation hedge. In the future, the forces that will have the greatest impact on Bitcoin's price will be the buying decisions of institutions, the allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of the valuation system for risk assets based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are also completing the evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds, which represent encryption assets, are transforming from "anarchic capital experiments" into "predictable institutional assets," and these structural opportunities will guide the direction of the next wave of capital flows.

The new round of the altcoin season will be more deeply tied to three major anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly have RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is an elitization of "altcoins," a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

For ordinary investors, the current market appears to be stagnant, but this is precisely the golden period during which large funds quietly complete their positions. The important thing is the restructuring of position allocation, rather than the randomness of high-stakes gambling.

The third quarter of 2025 will be a prelude to this wealth transfer. The next bull run will not ring a bell for anyone; it will only reward those who think ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the peak but will quietly shift before dawn.