Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind the Surge in Sui Ecosystem Value

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced significant growth, with its governance token rising by more than 75% in just one week, far exceeding the overall market performance. This phenomenon involves multiple factors, including speculative enthusiasm driven by market rumors, noticeable changes in capital flows, and continuous improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the funding trends behind the recent surge of SUI, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive analysis of the logic behind this ecological prosperity.

Fund Flow Analysis: Hot Money Inflows into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

From the perspective of on-chain capital flow, the capital changes of Sui over the past three months have not been significant, showing a net outflow of about 32 million USD. However, at the exchange level, the capital inflow into the Sui ecosystem is quite noticeable. Data shows that the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD in the past seven days, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the contract capital inflow of tokens in the Sui network ecosystem, such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS, also made it into the top ten, reflecting the capital activity of the Sui ecosystem.

The contract position of SUI tokens has rapidly increased since April 21, soaring from $700 million to $1.419 billion within a week, nearing historical highs. In addition, most tokens within the Sui ecosystem have also seen significant increases over the week, with approximately 20% of tokens rising over 100%, and 37.5% of tokens rising over 50%, indicating a comprehensive growth trend.

Multiple Positive Factors Boost Market Sentiment

Starting from April 21, mainstream tokens began to rebound simultaneously, and the rise of Sui was also initiated. Subsequently, multiple positive news reports emerged, including:

1. Pokémon Cooperation Rumors: The Pokémon HOME app updated its privacy policy, listing Parasol Technologies, acquired by the Sui core development team, as an authorized developer, sparking market speculation about the integration of Pokémon IP and the Sui blockchain.

2. xMoney/xPortal Collaboration: Sui announced a partnership with the financial platform xMoney and the crypto application xPortal to launch a Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within the xPortal app that has 2.5 million users.

3. ETF-related news: The news about 21Shares establishing the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity as early as January 2025 has been revisited.

4. Other progress: The Athens Stock Exchange Group announced the completion of the technical design for the Sui blockchain fundraising platform; Nautilus launched a verifiable off-chain privacy solution for Sui; Canary Capital submitted an application for a SUI ETF, etc.

These advancements cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, development environments, etc., creating an overall positive outlook, which is different from the single news-triggered explosion that Sui experienced before.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Increase in Network Activity

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high, reaching a historical peak of $998 million on March 29. The leading DEX project in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven overall growth, with its trading volume increasing by 84.5% in the past week. Another significant contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29.

The surge in trading volume may be related to the airdrop of Walrus. On March 27, the decentralized storage project Walrus released an airdrop, and on that day, the trading volume of the token reached $380 million, becoming the main driver of the recent increase in trading volume on the Sui network.

Developer activity is also the foundation for the growth of the Sui network. Since December 2024, the frequency of code submissions for the Sui network has peaked, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far surpassing the levels of Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risks and Future Challenges

Despite the generally optimistic market, Sui still faces some potential risks:

1. Continuous token unlock pressure: SUI tokens unlock tens of millions weekly, becoming the largest supplier in the market, which could be an uncertainty during the bullish cycle.

2. Uneven development of the ecosystem: Currently, the rise of the Sui ecosystem is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, but the performance of application and gaming projects is not yet prominent. The ecosystem needs to see the emergence of "hit" applications that can attract a large number of users for further prosperity.

In summary, the recent surge of the SUI token and its ecosystem is the result of the combined effects of market speculation enthusiasm, capital inflow, contract market expectations, and fundamental progress. However, whether Sui can convert the current enthusiasm into long-term value in the future still depends on the further development of its application ecosystem and how it responds to the ongoing token unlock pressure.