Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: Whale and ETF form a strong support combination, Fibonacci predicts a target of $2850.

Today (10th) in the Asian early session, Ethereum (ETH) further rose above $2,790, following the pump of Bitcoin to a historical high. This time, Ethereum's trend appears to be more robust, with on-chain indicators, exchange data, and ETF fund flows all showing a stronger trend for Ethereum. The question now is whether this trend can extend into a broader Rebound.

Ethereum whales defend the $2,500 area

According to Glassnode's latest cost distribution chart, over 3.45 million ETH are priced between $2,513 and $2,536. This indicates that most long-term investors have been accumulating in this range, with many currently taking small profits. This area is currently acting as a psychological and technical bottom; investors do not have the intention to sell in this range.

The higher the line density at a certain price level on the heat map, the stronger the forces holding that price level. In this case, multiple banded lines ranging from yellow to blue reinforce the view that whales and funds are actively defending that area. This is a positive signal because when whales buy and hold, they usually support price stability during periods of volatility.

The cost basis distribution is essentially a visual map that shows how much ETH was purchased at specific price levels. At a certain level, the higher the cost of ETH, the stronger the support level at that level.

(Source: X)

ETF inflows continue to drive demand

The inflows of ETFs have been quietly increasing. According to the latest data from Coinglass, the net inflows for Ethereum ETFs showed strong growth from late June to early July. Although these capital inflows are not explosive, they remain stable, and this stability is crucial.

On high traffic days, the price of ETH tends to pump. This pattern has persisted for several weeks. As the U.S. market opens up to more ETH-based products, including the anticipated launch of new custodial structures, ETH traffic may increase rapidly.

ETF inflow refers to funds entering the market through officially listed investment products, typically driven by institutional investors. This inflow represents new buying interest, which can absorb existing supply.

(Source: Coinglass)

Foreign exchange reserves remain close to historical lows

According to CryptoQuant's report, the total reserves of Ethereum on exchanges have dropped below 19 million ETH. Although this is not an absolute low, it is at a historical low. In mid-June, the reserves only slightly decreased, indicating that traders are still unwilling to send ETH back to the exchanges.

A low exchange reserve typically means a decrease in the amount of ETH available for immediate sale. When demand increases, such as with ETF or on-chain accumulation, prices may rise faster due to limited supply.

In short, whales are holding positions, exchanges are depleting, and ETFs are filling the gap. This is a powerful combination.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Fibonacci predicts that the ETH price may rise to $2,850

From the ETH/USD chart of the CEX, the Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that the main resistance is around 2,529 USD, and this resistance has been successfully broken. From the chart, there aren't many strong resistance areas above this resistance.

The next psychological and structural resistance level is at $2,850, which is also indicated by the Fibonacci indicator, and it is the previous high set in early June. If the ETH price breaks above $2,650 on high volume, momentum could easily push it to this level.

Due to investors defending the $2,500 region, tight foreign exchange reserves, and ETF inflows supporting demand, the current Ethereum price structure is bullish.

Unless there is a significant change in the macro environment, any pullback towards $2,520-$2,540 is likely to be bought up quickly. As long as ETH stays above this area, the path of least resistance remains upward.

(Source: Trading View)