Bitcoin's wedge oscillation and pullback risk strategy after reaching new highs

Core Logic and Market Sentiment Analysis

• Insufficient momentum for new highs: only slightly above the previous high of $77, showing characteristics of a "passive new high," with volume and market sentiment not matching, caution is needed for the pullback after the "atmospheric-driven rise";

• Wedge pattern determines direction: Before the hour-level wedge oscillation breaks through the upper boundary, the upward space is limited, and the consolidation to the end will choose a direction. The opening direction of the US stock market may become a key catalyst.

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long conditions:

1. Volume breakthrough at $111,311 → chase long on the right side, target $111,369 → $112,270, stop loss on break (requires volume to increase by more than 30%, otherwise be cautious);

2. Stand firm at $112,000 → increase long positions, targeting $113,272, as the certainty is higher at this point, suitable for avoiding the risk of chasing highs.

• Short selling conditions:

1. Volume drops below $111028 → short on the right side, target $110539 → $109704, retract stop loss;

2. 4-hour level breaks below $110,539 → add to short position, looking down to $108,297, triggering "high hanging restoration" risk.

Analysis of Patterns and Trend Lines

• Wedge Oscillation Boundary:

◦ Upper boundary resistance: $111,369, a breakout is needed to continue the rise;

◦ Lower boundary support: $110,539, breaking it will trigger a pullback;

• 4-hour level pregnant line pattern:

◦ Maintain the key bullish closing price → sustain the oscillation and accumulation of strength. If it breaks down, it will damage the pattern and pull back along the path of "how it went up is how it will go down".

Operational Discipline and Rational Reminders

• Do not chase new highs:

◦ Avoid blindly entering the market due to "fear of missing out on 120,000 or 150,000"; it's safer to enter after 112,000 USD stabilizes.

• Principle of Capital Protection:

◦ Long position stop loss reference wedge lower boundary (110,539 USD), short position stop loss reference wedge upper boundary (111,369 USD);

• Emotional management:

◦ Stay rational during market frenzy, remember "new high ≠ must rise", volume and pattern breakthroughs are the core, and the safety of funds is more important than missing opportunities.

Summary

Bitcoin's momentum for new highs is insufficient, with a wedge oscillation waiting for direction. The core operation: go long only after breaking the upper boundary of the wedge and stabilizing above $112,000; decisively go short if key support is broken. Use rationality to combat FOMO emotions and take action only when certain signals appear. Setting stop-losses and controlling position sizes are key to dealing with the current market situation.