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Crypto market pullback Mtgox compensation continues Fed hints at rate cut
Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report
BTC and ETH Market Trends This Week
This week, the Crypto Assets market is generally showing a downward trend. Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, mainly affected by the Mtgox compensation distribution event. The volatility of Ethereum has decreased, indicating that the negative impact after the spot ETF listing is gradually fading, which is beneficial for the forward price trend.
Important Events
Mtgox compensation continues, this week BTC is still being transferred from the address to the exchange in preparation for compensation, with about 32,899 coins remaining. Although there were no significant fluctuations in BTC prices at the beginning of the compensation, as more uncertain factors increased, market purchasing power declined, and Mtgox compensation began to affect the price.
The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 5.25%, in line with market expectations. Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market has fully priced in this expectation. U.S. stocks rose, and bond yields fell, resulting in liquidity being withdrawn from the Crypto Assets market, leading to the phenomenon of rising U.S. stocks while the coin market fell.
The situation in the Middle East escalates, and senior Hamas officials are killed in an attack in Iran. This incident may further worsen the already turbulent situation in the Middle East, and if Iran joins the war, it could lead to U.S. involvement. Following the announcement, U.S. stocks experienced varying degrees of decline, while oil and gold prices rose in the short term.
Altcoin Market Overview
The market fear index has fallen to 12% this week, entering a state of extreme fear, significantly down from 42% last week. This is mainly influenced by uncertainties in macro policies, tense geopolitical situations, and factors such as Mtgox payouts. After the Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts, liquidity has flowed into U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks, exacerbating the issue of insufficient purchasing power in the crypto market.
This week's rise rankings did not show obvious sector concentration characteristics, with rising tokens scattered across various sectors, and the increase is lower than last week, indicating a significant pullback in Altcoin overall. Meme tokens performed poorly, with most in a downward state.
In terms of social media popularity, Layer 1 projects receive the most attention. The SocialFi sector performs relatively well, mainly due to the strong performance of TON. The Meme sector overall performs poorly, with only a few projects achieving an increase.
Important Events Next Week
Market Outlook
Bitcoin: Mtgox compensation continues, macro uncertainty increases, market liquidity flows back to US stocks and bond markets, and BTC is expected to maintain wide fluctuations.
Ethereum: After the approval of the spot ETF, the "bad news has been fully priced in" effect continues, with Grayscale's ETHE still being sold off in large quantities, indicating significant short-term pressure. Market purchasing power is insufficient, and ETH is expected to remain under pressure.
Altcoin: It is greatly affected by the overall market sentiment, lacking new hotspots, and is expected to follow the market trend, making it difficult to have an independent market.