Ethereum faces pressure at $3000 with bearish flag breakdown risk strategy

Analysis of Core Logic and Selling Impact
• The direct reason for the instability of 3000 USD: the Ethereum Foundation sold 1210 ETH (average price 2889.5 USD), short-term selling pressure suppressed the increase, and the market is concerned about frequent selling.
• The validity of the daily box breakout needs to be verified: If it breaks out of the box and does not fall back inside, it is expected to replicate the left-side market (target $4100). On the contrary, it will return to the box for high sell and low buy, and one must be alert for "fake breakouts."
Key Level Trading Strategy
• Long Position Conditions:
1. Volume breakout at $3016 → chase long on the right side, target $3027 → $3072, stop loss on breakout;
2. Stand firm at $3027 → increase long positions, looking at $3107-3147, at this time the probability of touching $3100 is high;
3. Violent breakout above the upper boundary of the hourly bearish flag → Bearish flag invalidated, follow the trend to go long, target as above.
• Short selling conditions:
1. The volume falls below 2993 USD → short on the right side, target 2977 → 2945 USD, recover stop loss;
2. Fall below the lower boundary of the bearish flag → increase short positions, target 2912 USD, needs to be confirmed with volume;
3. 4-hour level falls below 2945 USD → correction starts, target below 2912 USD.
Analysis of Form and Multi-Period Technical Indicators
• Hourly level bearish flag:
◦ Upper boundary resistance: 3027 USD, a violent breakout would invalidate the pattern and turn bullish;
◦ Lower boundary support: $2993, if it falls below, it confirms a pullback, need to pay attention to whether the left side bullish candle (key support level) can hold.
• Daily level:
◦ If the upper edge of the box holds steady, the target is 4100 dollars; if it falls back into the box, it will fluctuate within a range, with support at 2900 dollars and resistance at 3000 dollars.
• 4-hour level:
◦ $2977 is the short-term support. If it falls below and does not recover → it will test $2945-$2912. If $2945 is lost, the correction will deepen.
Operational Discipline and Response to Pullbacks
• Addressing selling pressure:
◦ If there is another large sell-off near 3000 dollars, reduce long positions by 50% to avoid a chain reaction caused by continued selling by the foundation;
• Discipline of Breaking Pattern:
◦ Bearish flag pattern breaks above the upper boundary → must be accompanied by volume (increased by 50% compared to the previous hour), otherwise consider it a false breakout, exercise caution when chasing long positions;
\t◦\tIf the price falls below the lower boundary and does not recover within 15 minutes, immediately stop-loss the long position and open a short position.
• Key bullish defense:
◦ If the pullback holds the left side bullish candle → after consolidation, there is still upward momentum, you can try to go long with a light position; if it breaks down, abandon the bottom fishing and focus on observing.
Summary
Ethereum is currently influenced by selling pressure and a pattern game, with 3000 dollars being both a psychological and technical level. The core operation: rely on the bearish flag and box breakout direction to make trades, be cautious of foundation selling but do not panic, follow the trend if there is a volume breakout, and decisively cut losses if it breaks down, avoiding hard resistance in uncertainty.