2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin Future and Macroeconomic Trend Analysis

Recently, an online interview themed "2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's Future and Macroeconomic Trends" has attracted widespread attention in the industry. Several industry experts engaged in in-depth discussions on major events and their impacts in the 2024 crypto market, the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, institutional investment strategies, and other hot topics, offering unique insights into the market trends for 2025.

2024 Market Review

2024 is a milestone year for the crypto market. Key events such as the Bitcoin halving, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and Trump's victory have driven a significant surge in the market, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 barrier. Meanwhile, an increasing number of institutions, businesses, and even countries are beginning to participate in the encryption field.

ABCDE investment research partner Lao Bai believes that the birth of the GOAT project is the most shocking event of 2024. It overturns the industry's understanding of the combination of AI and encryption, revealing the important point that smart contracts may have been designed for AI agents from the start. He points out that the first citizens of blockchain may be AI agents rather than humans, which may be the true point of integration between encryption and AI.

Suji Yan, the founder of Mask Network, emphasized the profound impact of political factors on the crypto market. He pointed out that Bitcoin is moving towards becoming a national reserve, and this trend has emerged earlier and more forcefully than expected. Suji also boldly predicted that in the next 40-60 years, AI may obtain human rights, and this process will be closely related to Bitcoin.

The founder of dForce, Ming Dao, emphasized an analysis of the phenomenon of the Trump family directly participating in DeFi projects, believing that this could break the regularity of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. He pointed out that the attitude of the mainstream financial market in the United States towards encryption assets has fundamentally changed, and more and more teams are beginning to return to the United States, showing that the entire industry is moving towards mainstream.

The Market Landscape After Bitcoin Breaks $100,000

Experts have differing opinions on whether retail investors will find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 mark:

Lao Bai believes that although it is difficult to achieve hundredfold or thousandfold returns again, Bitcoin is still one of the best investment and financial management tools. He predicts that the market may become more specialized and resemble the US stock market, requiring strong investment research capabilities to achieve returns that surpass Bitcoin.

Suji Yan pointed out that any fund claiming to have a high return multiple has lower liquidity than Bitcoin. He emphasized that it is almost impossible to outperform Bitcoin in both liquidity and returns when the scale increases.

Mingdao suggests that retail investors adjust their investment strategies based on their own capital scale, considering a 50% allocation to Bitcoin and the other 50% to invest in low market cap secondary market projects or primary market projects.

Jeffrey Hu, the investment research director at HashKey Capital, emphasized that the key is to choose the right way to participate and find a balance between risk and return. He pointed out that different investment strategies suit different styles of investors, such as dollar-cost averaging or moderate use of leverage.

Institutional Investment Strategy Analysis

In 2024, institutions such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock played an important role in the Bitcoin market. Experts conducted in-depth discussions on the strategies of these institutions and their impact:

Mingdao explained the strategy of MicroStrategy as a "selling Bitcoin volatility" company, as well as BlackRock's continuous purchasing through ETFs. He expects these strategies to continue in 2025 and possibly see more imitators emerge. Mingdao believes that MicroStrategy's holding ratio may stop increasing at 7-8% to avoid affecting the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.

Lao Bai pointed out that as long as Bitcoin does not experience a significant crash, more companies are bound to follow the model of MicroStrategy. He also mentioned that a similar model based on Ethereum or even Solana may emerge in the next 2-3 years.

Suji Yan emphasized that the new generation of institutions such as BlackRock and Hyperliquid have adopted more standardized and transparent operational methods, which have enhanced the stability and manipulation resistance of the market. He predicts that Bitcoin is likely to achieve true inclusivity like gold, becoming a vehicle for gifts and inheritance.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future Outlook

Regarding the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, experts have put forward some interesting viewpoints:

Jeffrey Hu believes that the Bitcoin ecosystem itself is not necessarily Bitcoin, as many projects issue their own tokens. He pointed out that the earnings from BTC-Fi mainly come from staking, transaction fees, and lending, but the security and sustainability of these earnings still need further verification.

Mingdao believes that the concept of "Bitcoin Layer 2" is somewhat forced and commits the error of Ethereum empiricism. He pointed out that the so-called Bitcoin Layer 2 is essentially a bridge, and its security may not be as good as that of some centralized exchanges.

Old Bai stated that Bitcoin Layer 2 is currently in a semi-refutable state, and the development momentum in terms of EVM is not very ideal. He is more optimistic about the exploration of native Bitcoin Layer 2, such as the Lightning Network, RGB++, and so on.

Suji Yan emphasized that the Bitcoin ecosystem should focus on those areas that are particularly important and require absolute neutrality, such as infrastructure for freedom of speech. He believes that entrepreneurs should either concentrate on important projects that truly need neutrality or focus on more certain fields like asset management.

The Impact of Trump's Presidency on the Crypto Industry

Experts analyzed Trump's encryption policies after he took office as President of the United States:

Jeffrey Hu pointed out that after Trump came to power, Bitcoin and other encryption assets might become strategic reserves for nations or sovereigns, and more countries and regions may follow suit by establishing special zones for more radical attempts. The scope of ETF issuance may expand to include spot ETFs for other encryption assets such as Solana and XRP.

Mingdao expects a high probability of favorable legislation for encryption during Trump's term. He mentioned that Trump's appointment of David Sacks as the White House AI advisor is a positive sign.

Suji Yan believes that the attributes of Bitcoin and cyberpunk align more closely with the ideals of the Republican Party. He reminds that the implementation of policies needs to be gradual and should not adopt a hardline approach. It is important to view policy benefits rationally and pay attention to the actual implementation methods and pace of the policies.

2025 Market Prediction

Experts have made the following predictions for the market trends in 2025:

Mingdao believes that the likelihood of a bull-bear transition in the first quarter is relatively small, and it may take until the second quarter or later. He expects that in the first 100 days after Trump's inauguration, many promises may gradually be realized, and the impact of policy legislation on smart contract platforms will be greater.

Suji Yan pointed out that several important structural changes may occur in 2025: traditional financial institutions will participate more deeply in the crypto market; large technology companies may incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets; the Layer 2 ecosystem may experience explosive growth; the integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate.

Experts suggest that entrepreneurs should seize this opportunity, and ordinary investors should not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get washed out. Overall, the market is positive in the long run, but the way the benefits manifest may differ from expectations.