Outlook for the Gold Market: Gold prices may reach $8,900 by 2030

The recently released "We Trust Gold" 2025 Annual Report points out that the world is currently undergoing a new round of financial restructuring, with gold's strategic significance becoming increasingly prominent as a currency asset with no counterparty risk and no inflation. From the deindustrialization of the United States and the uncontrolled fiscal deficit to the rise of non-sovereign credit assets and the large-scale gold purchases by central banks, these trends collectively form the backdrop of the "gold bull market" pattern.

Current Status of the Gold Market

Gold is currently in the "public participation phase" of a bull market. Over the past five years, global gold prices have increased by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the dollar against gold has dropped by nearly 50%. Last year, gold set 43 historical highs when priced in dollars, and as of April 30 this year, it has set 22 new highs. Although it has surpassed the $3000 mark, this round of increase is still moderate compared to historical gold bull markets.

Key Factors Affecting Gold

Geopolitical Restructuring

The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing accelerated restructuring, which is favorable for gold. The world is transitioning from the "gold-backed Bretton Woods era, to the internal currency-backed Bretton Woods II, and then to the external currency (gold and other commodities)-backed Bretton Woods III."

Impact of Trump's Policies

After Trump returned to the White House, he initiated a profound restructuring of the American and global economies. His policy directions include addressing the government's excessive debt issue, trade policy reforms, and a policy of dollar depreciation. These policies may lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, or even a recession.

central bank demand

Central bank demand is a key pillar for the "bullish majority." This trend has significantly accelerated since February 2022 when Russia's currency reserves were frozen. For three consecutive years, central banks have increased their gold reserves by more than 1,000 tons.

The legal currency continues to depreciate

Since 1900, the M2 money supply in the United States has increased 2,333 times, with a per capita increase of over 500 times. The growth of the money supply is a key long-term driver of gold prices.

Gold Price Prediction

Incrementum Gold Price Model Prediction:

• Basic scenario: By the end of 2030, the gold price is about $4,800.
• Inflation scenario: By the end of 2030, the gold price is approximately $8,900.

Inflation Risk Analysis

Reports warn against dismissing the possibility of a second wave of inflation similar to the 1970s. In a stagflation environment, gold, silver, and mining stocks perform exceptionally well.

Investment Opportunities in "Performance Gold"

Silver and mining stocks have significant catching-up potential in the current decade. Market dynamics show that gold usually leads the rally, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities.

Bitcoin

The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold's market value. If we assume a conservative gold price target of about $4,800, the price of Bitcoin would need to rise to around $900,000 to achieve 50% of gold's market value.

Conclusion

The report suggests that the gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-stage of public participation. Gold is transforming from being seen as a relic of the past into a key asset in investment portfolios, providing both defensive stability and offensive potential. As traditional safe-haven assets lose trust, gold is re-emerging as the cornerstone of long-term investment strategies.